Thursday, October 28, 2010

What am I thinking?

Hard to explain...  is it possible to do this? Am I able to do this?

What's the most important thing in trading the markets?  Strategy?   As I've read that should be just a little aspect of a whole.   Trade management is important but more important is managing risk.  Mathematically it is possible to demonstrate that if you have a 40% chance over a hundred trades of winning, you still will make money in the market, only when risk is properly set to a risk/reward of 1:3.

With a 50% winning system, and a risk/reward of 1:2 also would be possible to be in positive.  So... when is the turning point?   with 50% chance of win or lose, and a 1:1 we might be just at breakeven point but more than likely would result in negative.

The main question here is: Do you have a system?

And the following questions derived from the first one:  Do you know the winning percentage of that system? How much is your risk/reward ratio for your trades?  Is the same for everyone or differs from one to another?

And as a final question:  Are you waiting for the best "low risk - high probability" setups to occur or just jumping in and out of the market based of emotions?

Tough questions... tough answers required.  You are the responsible for your future.

I haven't entered any trade, but I've been burning up a demo account. From my observations to the market and my own response to the market,  shorter timeframes are just to volatile and with price action flashing so fast, the brain is tricked by the eyes.  With higher timeframes all the setups have enough time to be placed and executed.

It's a little bit contradictory but technical analysis should work in any market and any timeframe.  Technical analysis might work but emotions won't.

Plan your trade and trade your plan.


PD.  Flipping a coin doesn't count as a system!
.