The close of the current week might provide me a better outlook of what could happen next. Analyzing the weekly, last week's bar had closed as a doji with long wicks, which basically tells me that there is a lot of indecision. This doji could represent a reversal signal but more confluences are needed.
The current week's bar is still forming so I shouldn't consider it yet but is showing a possible break out to the upside. There is a catch, though. Still in downtrend. Price is relatively close to the 120sma which has presented some trouble for price acting as support/resistance in the past; also we have to consider the round number and previous top @1.6000. Maybe the daily could provide us more clues.
Comparing the daily chart from my last post, price was rejected from the resistance line but one day later bounced back to the upside and by now, definitely price has broke the resistance line. I've drawn a regression channel which I expected price could broke to the downside and finally resume its downtrend, giving some credit to the elliot wave count. Because price broke and then bounced back to this channel, I think that the upside should be more probable. Right now price is trading inside the regression channel. If price brakes to the upside and trades beyond 1.60s, two conclusions... or I'm making a wrong assessment about elliot theory which means I should revise my wave counts, or this concept should be forgotten.
I've also attached a 4H chart. Since last week price has been trading in an upward channel. If continues bouncing inside this channel, price might brake the 1.6000 and continue forward, but, a break to the downside could happen and price should test previous lows. We can see from this chart how price has struggle around this 1.57/1.59 zone
.
