Sunday, October 17, 2010

eurgbp

New pair to analyze

Critical position in the weekly for the eurgbp. Last week price just reached a high of 0.8840 which just hits two previous trend lines near a resistance level, as we can see in the chart below.  The previous candle was a doji with large wicks (indecision bar) and the last bar in the chart looks like a spinning top.   Roughly we can say the trend is down in the weekly chart due it looks like a consolidation phase after an uptrend.  We are seeing though lower lows and lower highs, so technically, it is a downtrend although the 200sma and the 120sma are pointing up.


In the daily I've left some fib clusters that acted as support/resistance zones.  With some extensions, projections and retracements, I defined a narrow zone between 0.8893/0.8921 where I was expecting price would reach.  This area also coincides with 0.8900 as possible resistance level due it's a round number but seems that bullish momentum has lost steam.  With convergence in MACD and a bearish crossover on stoch,  price might reverse to test previous R/S zones and lows.  We have to consider price has been in an uptrend (midterm) since august, and fight against the trend is not a good idea but we would be aligning with the major downtrend (longterm).


Some harmonic confluences are also present in the 4H chart (not posted) suggesting as possible reversal the 0.8900 but we have to wait and see what happens in the next couple of days.
.