euraud follow up

For the record, I haven't enter the trade.  From yesterday's 4H chart, stochastics still had room to go lower so I decided to wait and stay aside.  Are the conditions for this trade invalid? No they are not.  Actually by now we would have a better opportunity trade with a better risk/reward ratio.  A few things concern me about the set-up tough.

Analyzing the 4H chart above,  the lower line of the channel have been compromised with price trading below it. Although we still have convergence on MACD and price haven't trade below the wave 1 high, price still have a little room to go lower if we just analyze this chart.  There is the bearish stream in the stochastics with a crossover to the downside. Nevertheless, the previous setup haven't been stopped out yet.

Here I remember the Alternation Rule for elliot wave theory, which states that if we have a simple wave 2 correction, we can expect a complex wave 4 correction; and vice-versa.  In the 4H chart, we do had an abc simple correction wave 2, and by now, wave 4 is in a complex correction due its various overlapped swings.

I've attached the 60M chart for a closer look of the market which would give us more clues.

In the 1H, there are some aspects to consider.  The previous set-up would have been triggered at 1.4110 where price move in our favor for a few hours where lost steam and found resistance at 1.4170, which coincides with a bearish crossover on stochastics.  With stochastics in the overbought zone, an upward movement would be limited and that's exactly how price reacted making a new low at 1.4047.  That's not a big issue though, because that gave us more harmonic confirmations that price has reached an important support zone.  Making some extensions and projections from the lasts few swings, price "shouldn't" go below the 1.4053/1.4029 zone; which coincides with the 4H chart support zone and also is above the wave 1 high.

In a closer analysis to the market, I study the 15M chart and from the last swing high (1.4177 high), price has develop a 5 waves downward movement which had to conclude at 1.4045 and just it did a few pips shy.  Let's see if price found its bottom.  This value lies just in between the support zone of 1.4053/29

This analysis would provide another opportunity to enter the market at a better price with a better risk/reward ratio with an entry around 1.4094.  Still! I could be death wrong and price could sink further.

It seems to me I'm making an endless analysis loop and I should stop, and not go deeper and deeper, but I'm just amaze how market develops.
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