Since april this year, price started to form a symmetrical triangle and it was matter of time for price to break either way, and it seems that decided to resume its down trend, at least for now, and should test previous lows.
In the weekly chart we can see the current bar completely outside the triangle, but we should wait to its close to see and decide. Could be a FalseBreakOut, though. Also we are reaching a strong support zone considering the trend line drawn on orange from november 2007 to april 2010. I'm still bearish on this one because price broke the 1.0300 level which was a previous strong resistance/support, so more than likely the loonie could trend again to the downside. The 200sma is pointing down and we don't want to trade against the trend. If we are in a false break out, price should test previous lows and bounce back to takeout previous highs to confirm that a new uptrend is in place.
In the daily we can see in a closer look the symmetrical triangle and how it was broken to the downside. I've also drawn which seems to be a new downtrend channel in clear blue. Although price broke the triangle, today found support at the lower line of the channel and also in the orange trend line as well. Again I'm a little confuse about what could happen. In the daily the trend is down but there are a few levels to break before continuation. If there is no break to the downside, price could go to test the upper line of the channel, but if the break do occur to the down side, there is a narrow zone with some confluence of numbers that could attract price. There are some fib extensions and projections that coincide with the previous low, in the range of 0.9956 to 0.9930. The price to reach this zone also have to break the big round number of 1.0000 which tends to be a major psychological support.
Going even closer to the market, in the 4H chart, another symmetrical triangle formed and was broken as well, providing a nice short term trade opportunity (which I didn't take). The break of the triangle trend line, then a retest providing a safe place for an order. With a possible first target within the zone 1.0059 and 1.0078 which are the range of several confluence of fib numbers. Because this trade is after the facts, it hasn't much validity now, although could leave the precedent when another opportunity appears in the future, and it will.
By now price shows convergence in MACD which might suggest a possible reversal. Time will tell...
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