GBPUSD - A small bump in the way...

It´s been a while since my last post...  So, what happened with my last analysis... wasn´t accurate enough.  With a retracement in mind, I entered short in the gbpusd in oct 19th.    You may remember that I was expecting a retracement in price and then go long, but I tempted my luck and try to get advantage of this movement too. Let´s analyze the next chart...

Price reach 1.6398 and started to decline. Two bars later, I entered short @ 1.6340 and established my stop @ 1.6416
My stop was around 15 pips above the previous high (1.64 aprox).  That way I was giving enough space to price reaction and not get stopped out to soon but not too far to get really hurt. Price nicely behave as predicted and started to go down so my possible targets were between the fib retracement levels.  More that likely price should retract at least 1.6134, 1.6053 or 1.5971, I thought... Then price eventually retract to the first fib level of 78.6% @ 1.6250 (price reached 1.6241) and go further upwards.

I was kicked out a few hours later with a 78 pips lost.  That´s not too bad due my money management.  Always remember to have strict money management rules because you want to be there tomorrow.

I´m going to post soon what I think is happening lately...

I didn´t expect that!

I really didn´t expect that big movement this days.  Some charts below...

We can see in the daily chart price, from wednesday sep 30th to tuesday oct 6th, has some uncertainty behavior... I couldn´t figure out how price could react on the following days.  It took a few days but my target of 1.5758 was reached and even breaked through with a low of 1.5707 on monday oct 12th.

Then... what the hell?

                 

Price skyrocketed to the roof...  with a approximate 600 pips up in just three days.  I didn´t expect that , but the only thing that I can do now is analyze what could happen in the future.

Price break through the wave 1 low (1.6112 on tuesday sep 1st) of the three wave correction.  That´s why we can know be certain of that correction was only a three wave corrective pattern. Wave four never can overlap wave two so this uptrend is a new upward impulse action. We may be entering at a wave three of a major wave.

We can expect that price could go up further and beyond 1.7040 (wednesday aug 5th high) .  But experience tell us that nothing is for sure in this damn life.  With this 600pips in an unexpected rally, we will see a technical pullback.  With that in mind, a long opportunity would be shining in the next few days.  I want to take it.

With price around 1.6335 right now, more than likely, could retract to 1.6098, 1.6023 or even 1.5948.

Time will tell...
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gbpusd

On monday 28th price almost reached my target at 1.5758.  Price reached 1.5770 as low that day, only 12 pips away from my target.  I´m not discarting that target yet, because a few things around my head.  This is what we got...

In my post on sunday night (sep 20th), price was forming a bulish candle but on monday 21st, at the close, we had a doji formed that confirmed a pullback in the days ahead.  I wrote that price could reach even 1.6422 and amazingly price closed at 1.6424 forming a doji as we can see in the 4H chart posted below. That´s only two pips away from my expectations.  Then, price continue to go lower and lower...

I have labeled on the 4H chart some elliot wave counts, are we at the end of a five wave? don´t know. Wave five should go lower than wave three so that´s why I´m not discarding the 1.5758 target.  But we have stochastics crossover and pointing up, so... what is it suppose to mean?

Why I didn´t post anything in this twelve past days... I was going to but I wanted to see what the market was doing, specially yesterday, nfp friday.  I just wanted to see what effect could cause in my previous analysis, but guess what... it seems to me that nothing at all.  Fundamental vs technical...  I think that we have a winner.

Sum up... reviewing the daily chart, the question would be, are we at the end of a three-legs corrective pattern? or we are going to see a five wave downtrend pattern. Time will tell...

If you are wondering if I entered... no, I did not.
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So, what happened...

My analysis was accurate enough but I didn´t enter the trade. By now, I´m expecting gbpusd to go lower, at least to 1.6112 (1sep low), even lower.

On wed16, we had a doji and that freak me out. Stochastics were pointing down so that was a little contradictory. By that day I was considering to go short because we had the dma crossover, but with that doji there, I needed to wait to see what the market was doing. That could mean a long oportunity but, as we saw, my first analysis could give be an outstanding 400 pips if I have entered short on 1.6650 to 1.6250

Right now, on sunday night, a bullish candle is forming. That could mean that due the several bearish bars through the week, maybe traders around the world are closing their positions. We can see, maybe, a recovery in price that could reach 1.6340 or even 1.6380 or 1.6422. I´m not sure but time will tell.

From my initial analysis, price has to go down till 1.5758 at least.

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No surprises there...

Just waiting for a develop wave three, by now is in progress... for me anyway.

I attached a DMA. One mechanical trading method says that a order signal could be trigger at the crossover. Should I wait or enter already?


The second graph is 1H gbpusd chart. Just for a glimpse about how technical analysis works in any timeframe. The fibonacci level 1.618 and 2.618 reached... coincidence?
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gbpusd

Last friday a doji was formed, as expected. So far the downtrend is beginning but I didn´t enter the trade. If we had a five-wave uptrend, we can expect a correction. If not a five-wave in downtrend, at least a three wave correction.


If we are in a downward five-wave impulse action, we are at the beginning of a wave three and anyone knows that this should be the one to be taken. In a closer look we can analyze the 4H chart. On friday we had the perfect entry opportunity with a spining top at morning. By now I would like to enter a trade... the question is when. With a trailing one bar entry Tr-1BL I should enter the trade at 1.6640 but now is too late with price around 1.6600. The stop should be around 1.6750


Should I enter now? Or I need to wait for a kind of Gann pullback. But hesitation hits me again. The old adage is never wrong... trend is your friend, you don´t need, want or be able to fight against it. We are in a strong uptrend. Why should I be going short? when the trend is bullish. Time will tell.

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GBPUSD sep10

The sHs pattern seems that was true, so, the cross went up from 1.6200 aprox to 1.6646 so that´s 446 pips in six days. I would like to be in the trade but I didn´t jump in.


What is happening now?... Not too clear to me but this is what I´m seeing...

We have completed a five-wave cycle labeled with green numbers. Blue ABC waves represent a possible reverse pattern, then, a first leg in a new downtrend.

I´ve drawn fibonacci levels and seems to me that wave two could be reaching the 38.2 level. Stochastics are overbought and seems a possible cross to the downside. Remember that round numbers are resistances too! so 1.6700 will be something to take care about it. Tomorrow the markets will give more clues about it. If we see a doji, that could be a confirmation of an exhaustion of bullish traders.

The alternative scenario would be a bullish candle breaking the 38.2 level. The next resistance level would be 23.6 and if the price breaks it too, the downtrend have to be dismissed and price would go beyond 1,7040 (august 5th high).

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gbpusd review

A lot of time has pass, and market flow with grace...

Let's review what happened since last gbpusd update. My target around 1.5325/1.5352 was nicely reached one day after my prediction at may 12th, but... that time I stated that should be taken as a short trigger. How wrong I was...


I have labeled with green numbers the major elliot wave count. We can see that this was the wave three and it's always the longest one. In may 12th we were at the middle, nevertheless, we can appreciate the congestion (or consolidation?) between those days, just for watch market break that resistance level and go higher and higher.

With blue numbers I've labeled a minor elliot wave count. We can see that wave three
reached 2.618 fibonacci level... coincidence? don't think so.

What's happening now? I can appreciate a SHS formation there. What should do? I think that we may go long but we never know for sure.

Things that I have to work with... entry strategies.

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Back to the known

Too many things have distracted me in this last few weeks/months... If I want to make this right, I have to be more serious about it.

Never is too late and hope is the last thing to extinguish, but do not confuse hope with knowledge. I´m not talking about markets. There is not such thing as hope there.

Studying charts... my only distraction from now... what timeframe should ask yourself... I don´t know. I do know that any timeframe reacts almost equally to technical analysis. I would like to start to trade again. A larger timeframe requires a bigger stoploss so if everythings goes against me, 2% per operation shouldn´t be enough, so a minor timeframe more than likely would be a possibility.

Tomorrow an update about what happened with my gbpusd analysis from way back.

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Karma?

My ass!

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Standstill

Never look back... but never forget!

Shatter...

Hope?

Life is a bitch... get used to it!

Flashback

Greetings!


What an awful image I found reviewing my forex experiment.


I used to take a screen capture once in a while when started in forex trading to keep some kind of journal... from ashes to ashes, and what an horrible image I found... this was one of the worst of a few that I´ve taken.

If you have some time, review the summary at the bottom... ouch!!!
Always remember, plan the trade and trade the plan. Never trade without a plan!!!
As you can see in this picture, just plain close price charts in one only timeframe, a lot of crosses and just hope. Bad way of trading and a disaster anticipated. A 400k sell position and BaM! price ran away like a rabbit to the other side, and without a stop...
The worst way to understand and learn what a margin call is.

Again... Don´t trade without a plan!

Beyond fear and greed

All investors are humans and despite any training they are susceptible of emotions... Right now I´m trying to educate myself on how to control and manage my own emotions... but as I see, I´m not too concern about fear or greed... I would call it anxiety

I´m not telling that I haven´t suffer the agony of fear or the shame of greed that result on a reverted position... right now, I´m aware about those emotions. Back to the beginning, I was playing russian roulette, but now I´m more consent of this and trying to manage them.

Why anxiety now? Despite if a position result a winner or losser, my only concern is what the hell happened... if my analisys was accurate or not, I´m not happy -or sad- for a winner or loser trade, my principal objetive is make a better analisys the next time.

... feelings, I wish I never meet you... you make me sick again...

No chart for now... I´ll try to post an update tomorrow.

GBPUSD

Hello!

It seems that tuesday indecision bar just was a fake reversal signal and price went up a little bit. The next resistance level could be 1.5200 as round number but I don't see anything that could stop this uptrend, giving us the possibility to reach my projection target around 1.5350


Now we have an overbought stochastics and still divergence on MACD. Price could retract but I'm positive about May 11th as reversal day. A trade trigger could be a crossover on stochastics.

Tomorrow I'll post an update about AUDUSD that seems is working like a clock. The USDCAD doesn't behave as expected, fortunately I didn't enter the trade but sooner or later price is going to go up, maybe tomorrow.

GBPUSD update, Finally!

Greetings!

Let's see... Price is now in a bullish trend. Remember that doji on april 10th?, price went up and reached the 1.272 fibonacci extension from initial swing and also a round number as resistance (1.5000). Then we realized MACD divergence and price retraced almost 600 pips to 1.4400 aprox. acting as support. Then a few bars of indecision to finally continue to a new high 1.5159 (tuesday, may 5th high -today-) but it seems that this is a incecision day as well, so what could happen next?


That's a good question. Stochastic is still showing a bullish trend and price seems to react in a trend channel, so price targets could be between 1.5325/1.5430 and more than likely 1.5352 Today's bar, as a indecision candlestick, make me wonder if price will retrace from now... I'm not sure, Do we have still divergence on MACD? It seems that we have. As counterpart, stochastic is not overbought, yet, so we have room a bit more to advance. My time bands are telling me that a change could happen on May 11th also time extensions, and that coincide with the trend channel. Stochastics on a weekly chart are still pointing up so price should upscale a little more to targets, then retrace.

The alternate scenario would be a downtrend starting tomorrow (wednesday, may 6th)... maybe a Gann pullback?

Another interesting pair right now, USDCAD seems so nice to go long... should I jump in? I hope not regret any decision
.............

Changing subjects. Uncertainty in my life... What should I do? There is a song that says... as more people I know, The most I love my dog... Is there still hope? Sadly I'm arriving to a dead end. There are questions that I don't have an answer for... Why you get up in the mornings? What is your motivation? Why to continue?

One year

This post is only a reminder. Yesterday, May 1st, was the aniversary of my first closed position which resulted as a winner trade.

If you read a few of my first blog entries, you may also now that I started this with 600usd as initial capital, and that first winning position was for 102usd (204 pips at 0.50usd per pip)

That's when this thing hooked me.

Afternoon I'll try to post some reviews about those pairs posted in here and a late analysis of GBPUSD that I have abandon for a while.

Try to have a nice weekend! I have to try as well

Trust your analysis, Again!

Two days ago I was almost entering a long trade in USDJPY but I decided to wait. Bad decision. As you can analyze in the next chart, all the confluences gave a green light to enter the trade, but hesitation is something that I have to overcome.


Tuesday candlebar was a confirmation of a new uptrend coming,also we have a oversold stochastics crossover and pointing up. Wednesday and thursday just confirm my initial thought and regrets are carving my brain.

Again it's not healthy to count imaginary pips, won or lost, but in this trade that could result on a 224 pips aprox. winning position.

Now, for me, the target to this uptrend could be the previous resistance level that coincide with a strong, big, round number 100.00; for me doesn't make any sense to enter the trade now... it's too late.

We have to wait till market gives more clues about what could happen next. Price could reach 100.00 but nothing is for sure in this life, I'd say. The alternate scenario could be a downtrend starting on friday, that could result in a new low beyond 96.00, even 94 or 93.

A conclusion of this missed trade, it seems that I'm starting to undertand this thing... one step at a time.

AUDUSD update

Sorry for the delay in posting an update. I was out of my country for almost a week and didn't be able to post anything.

Let's review the AUDUSD. We had a high of 0.7317 on monday 13th and we see a divergence on MACD that was looking good. Four trading days pass and we see a huge retracement of price, reaching 0.6972 as low (closing price) of retracement. I don't like to make unreal pips counts and discourage people that do this, but that's an incredible change of 345 pips.



That make me realize that divergence on MACD works!

Now we are in a consolidation phase, I think. Price went up again till 0.7236 and then retraced again generating a indecision bar on tuesday. Stochastics is pointing down but to me it seems that is still in an uptrend, so I'm not discarding my targets of 0.7576/91

Time will tell.

An alternative scenario would be a retracement to 0.6800 zone but (again... to me!) it's not probable. Price has tested a previous support zone around 0.7000 and couln't go through, so the uptrend is more than likely to happen.

Tomorrow I will post a GBPUSD review and right now, the USDJPY seems so nice to me to enter long, but I'm going to wait. Maybe tomorrow I'll post an analysis of this chart.

AUDUSD review

So... We had a doji formed on last friday. We supposed that price would retrace because divergence on MACD. Contrary to thought, price went up almost 120 pips and MACD went lower.

Still in divergence, price reached 0.7317 on monday 13th and retract as anticipated on tuesday 14th almost same value. Including the beginning of wednesday trading day, price retraced almost 145 pips. Is this retracement a mid/long term condition? I don't know.


To me it seems that AUDUSD is in an uptrend, so this retracement could be just a extreme short term condition just to continue to a new high. My possible target is about 0.7576/91. Once again for the record, I'm not in this trade.

A review of friday's doji. A doji is a strong signal of change. That could be understood as a reversal signal, but, it has to be on the top or bottom of a trend. In this particular case, the doji was lower than the most closer high. That should be enough to discredit this doji. When divergence on MACD appear, is just matter of time that price is going to follow.

Tomorrow I'll post a GBPUSD update.

Trust your own analysis

As you can see from this image, that was a high probability and low risk trade. Right now the market has formed a doji in last friday. I'm not really sure, I think that this day was a vacation day or something; monday we'll see how the market develops.


I don't enter this trade because my internet connection problem, also, as you may know, I lost confidence in my analysis so I was just observing how the market was developing in time and it seems that my analysis was accurate enough. Knowing the way I am, probably if I enter this trade in that day, that could ended as a lost. Where to put stops are so important too.

A small comment about timeframe and stops:

I'm not really sure how to manage a trade. It seems (to me) that if you trade in a large timeframe stoplimits are far away from my comfort zone. By example, in daily charts (like posted), using only pattern to estimate a limit, the position should be 140 pips aprox. in the trade that I missed. Usually I used to define a fixed stop of 30 pips... maybe too short I could say now. As counterview, small timeframes using same pattern analysis, limitstops are closer to market action, but as I told before in previous post, be aware about scalping and too small timeframes... just too much noise.

By now, AUDUSD looks like is in an uptrend... but we have divergence in MACD. That's strong enough to tell me that it's going to retrace... not sure where. In future posts I'm going to follow these two charts from now, and maybe if it's possible, another pair or two. Actually I'm seeing 10 pairs now.

I tried to post this entry yesterday but I couln't. Tomorrow I will try to post any update about these two pairs.

Not yet...

My monday's analysis is still in progress so I don't see any other topic to discuss, nevertheless, it seems that my time prediction was just baloney! Last friday has formed a beautiful doji and could be considered as a signal to enter... my time bands are predicting a reversal on monday or tuesday (april 14th) and also we have a strong support at 1.4630 (I think!) that corresponds at 0.618 fibonacci level from last swing. Maybe price could found support at 1.4600 (round number) considered also as a previous support zone. A trigger for a trade could be a crossover on stochastics.


Just for the record, I'm not going to enter the trade... we'll see if I was wrong or right, without risking capital. Naming an extraordinary trader, Robert Miner, capital preservation has to be the most important aspect of a solid strategy. Also making a quote of something that I read (don't remember where)... I can assume that you want to be wealthy slowly and Not poor quickly, or kind of; so take it easy. An alternative scenario could be a progressive downtrend going beyond the fib level to 1.4533 (0.5) or even 1.4433 (0.382). If prices perforate those support levels, we could say: what the hell? and see what the market brings next in a few days.

Returning to the basics, it seems (to me) that we are now in a uptrend... remember: higher highs and higher lows, and that's what I'm seeing.

Tomorrow I'll try to post another pair that I'm looking at for a while and a miss trade in that.

An apology and a warning

Greetings readers... if there is anyone!

I´m not able to post every single day of the week as you may know about my internet connection problem. Right know I´m not in my computer and I don´t have access to a chart program so I couldn´t post an image... and actually I don´t have any idea so far about what the hell happened with the GBPUSD cross!

This post is just an anticipated apology to those people that have had created strategies and concepts that I´m going to use or maybe name in future posts... if I could remember which sentence belong to somebody, I´m going to post it, but if not, please forgive me in advance.

For example, I could cite the KISS strategy. That I have learnt from babypips.com and that´s the most powerful strategy that I´ve found over the internet. That means Keep It Simple Stupid!. It´s not really a step-by-step path but that shake my perception about how to see things! And as you can anticipated, an ironic laugh! Believe me if I can say that I have suffered the so called technical analysis brain paralysis... too many indicators and just a short-circuit in my brain.

Nevertheless, I can´t say how many sites I have read about forex... how many essays and documents... a few books I could say... blogs... many videos on youtube... So remember what belongs to who is just impossible.

I hope tomorrow to post an image about what the hell happened with our first posted pair, GBPUSD, and analize how wrong I was or viceversa.

Final words... This is a warning and I´m almost positive that you already have heart it before... Forex is a dangerous and volatile market... and it´s not suitable for all investors. Involve risk and possible lost of the investment capital... as you can prove with my first entries. The first objetive of this blog is to keep a record of my own experiences and it does not have to be considered as an investment advice or kind of. So, be aware about forex risks and make your own analysis.

See you tomorrow!

A few words and a first chart

Well, it's been a while... Just feel like a glass that crashed the floor...

You might anticipated that almost every word written in previous posts were tought several days ago, even weeks, and it's true. I sat down on march 1st and wrote almost every single entry of this blog so far, and also had a few more written, but as time goes by, I don't see any benefit of publish those.

By now, I'm willing to look the market just as an observer; I don't feel ready to start trading again yet, so I'm going to make my own analysis and time is going to tell me if I was right or wrong... But remember the absolute truth: MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT!

As published in previous posts, I'm going to follow only major pairs, and for now the GBPUSD:


As you can see, I was right on march 11th, but I didn't enter the market. That's another issue, believe it or not, I have an internet conection problem and it's difficult to me stay connected all the time. What am I expecting about this daily chart? Well... you can see a big red bar about monday, and a kind of doji on tuesday bar, but this trading day is just beginning so it doesn't have sense to consider this one. With fibonacci extensions, price could retract to 1.4533 on tuesday, even 1.4433, but not beyond, and that could confirm a new uptrend.

Price could reach then 1.5280 at least, even 1.5469/1.5479 on april 14th. Time will tell...

Tomorrow we'll see what the hell happened!

The real journey begins now

It’s difficult to me… really difficult at this time of my life dedicate entirely to market analysis. I’m not giving up... never.

I’m still reviewing my procedures and this log is going to help, or at least it will keep what the hell I was thinking at the time to open a position.

Some considerations that I’m now willing to follow:

- Stay away from 5min chart or less. I tried before and didn’t work, why to try again? Even trade in tick charts and positions went awfully wrong. Like chasing rabbits with blind eyes. Stay Away!
- Analyze the bigger timeframe first, and then at least three timeframes over the trigger timeframe. Get the bigger picture before enter with the trend, not against it.
- Maybe consider as trigger timeframe 15min chart but analyze 1H, 4H and daily charts before.
- Return to demo account till be consistently profitable.

Things that I’m aware of, and have to work in:

- Still don’t have a rigid strategy; I have a general idea about technical analysis but I’m not certain in my procedures
- Technical indicators are history price tools, but the most direct and realistic indicator is price. Support/Resistance and pattern are extremely strong tools. Use them.
- Lack of a valid entry strategy.
- Trend is my best friend and I don’t want, need or be able to fight with it.

So this is it. Every single trade I make is going to pass through this blog.

The importance of a log

Ups and downs, market is mopping the floor with my face. Is like chasing rabbits with closed eyes. When I opened a position, the market goes exactly in the opposite way and hit my stop. So you probably have read this before…

Other things that I’ve read or maybe thought… the broker is playing me bad, or the market is crazy and more nonsense statements.

The absolute truth about the market is that it´s always right, period.

Another thing that I’ve learnt is that probably all new traders (including myself) are right almost every time, but at the wrong moment.

So it’s time to another step back and analysis. By now, this is the graph Balance vs Equity since my last deposit.



Not a good performance. That’s why I’ve started this blog. Because I didn’t keep a record of my trades, I didn’t learn anything from them.

Right now my last position closed with a lost of -17usd so my balance/equity is 1428.02usd since February 23rd.

Since then, I didn´t trade anymore till I feel that I´m ready, which it´s not soon.

A review and a new start

What I can conclude about this entire journey in forex market… Definitely is not the end.

My biggest mistakes were:
- No trading plan
- No coherent strategy
- No money management
- No trading log
- No control over emotions
- No knowledge about markets

So I’m trying to do it right now. I’m trying to change and improve my methods. From books, I’ve learned a few strategies. But I’m not confident about those and trying to develop one on my own.

I made a last 2k deposit at the end of last year on December 31st. And this is it. With all of the things that I’ve learned, I supposed that this time I could do it right.

Guess what… Not so good news.

I opened two positions in December 31st and immediately were positive. I yell to the sky “I finally get it”, and then the market closed for holydays. I looked at the markets when reopened in January 2nd, and things go wrong… they hit my stop loss with a total of -150usd aprox. Not a good New Year start.

The big winner

From the picture of my last blog entry, you can see my balance vs equity since April to October 2008, which include all of my trades, deposits, my one withdraw, also price corrections from the broker (premium).

That’s why it seems to be 2750 operations, but really I have opened 700 positions.

I had 482 winners and 218 losers. That’s a 68.75% of winning rate but you know the awful truth.

It doesn’t matter how many winners or losers you have. Now I understand the oldest say: cut your losses soon and let winners run, or kind of.

So the big winner is… I know it, you know it… the broker!

Since the beginning of my trading career I’m down with 4300usd without consider cost of transfers.

A standstill

My experiment was a train crash.

At that time, I needed to step back and analyze the situation. I said, this is not for me… or is it? What the hell happen? And more important… What to do now?

The wise thing that I can figure out is study. So, since that time to the present, I was studying books, web pages, forums, other blogs, essays, and anything that I could grab about technical analysis. I have determined to continue with my trading career. Since then, I study charts, think charts, eat charts and even dream on charts.

The next picture resumes my experiment. Balance vs Equity. From ashes to ashes.

What Do you think that happen?

In that time, still without any knowledge about trading or technical analysis, I had 3000usd in my account due my last deposit. That was September 15th.

I’m risking too much, I thought, with my profit targets were too high and almost every trade I made went against me. I didn’t take big positions, just 5000 or 10000 per position (0.50 or 1usd per point). Things were worst when I risk too much in last attempts with overleveraged positions, but I thought… If I lower my profit limits and still use big positions, is a sure thing! I could make as much as I made with small positions in bigger profit targets.

What wrong I was… Now I realized

Still with no knowledge of trading, no stop limits and close targets things were worst. Now I know that this is called “scalping”. I used 100k positions.

Bad idea... Really a bad idea...

Without technical knowledge is like play Russian roulette. And the bullet was in the chamber. Too late I retake small positions but…

October 8th, the last remain position closed with a lost. My balance: 1.83usd

Another try

This wasn’t too bad or was it? I deposited 300 and withdraw 2000. In my experiment I was up. But being a persistent person, I couldn’t let things that way.

On July 30th, I deposited 1000usd, but more or less a week later, on August 6th another downfall to 2.04 usd on my balance. Still up in my experiment because that deposit was from my first withdraw.

You possible can understand how I felt in my birthday con August 12th.
But I don’t give up. August 19th I deposit 2000usd. And guess what happened two weeks later… on September 1st my balance was 3.15usd.
Things started to hurt. 1000 down from the beginning of my experiment, without count how much transfers cost me by mnygram (almost 100 per transaction) But I’m the kind of person that when established a goal, it has to happen sooner or later so I decided to take another try.

This time I wire transfered 3000 usd. It was much cheaper that mnygram. Wire transfer has a fixed cost of 50usd plus a small % of transfer.

Damn it!

So… reviewing, I deposit 300usd and withdraw 2000. What incredible feeling.
But something change, things feel different.

What? You may asking yourself… Things started to care. Before I withdraw, this was just a game, now was real. Before, I opened positions without hesitation or fear, almost without think (obviously with previous analysis).

Doing the same things that I did from the beginning, basically trading by intuition, I reached my peak in July 11th of 33737.14 in my balance, but my equity was 15118.28, that means that I had -18618.86 in open positions.

My biggest mistake was not to have a money management plan. As my balance was increasing, my positions too. I started with positions of 5000 and 10000, later 20000, 40000, and 80000. Finally positions of 100000, 200000 and 400000.
Now I can say, What the hell was you thinking… 40usd per pip? And you can anticipate what happened with all this over leveraged positions…

As a plane with a problem, I was a fireball crashing with the ground. July 17th was the end… my balance was 19.78 usd.

What the hell?

Opened positions as crazy, looking almost every major pair, trying to catch every single swing, I was doing well. Incredible well reviewing at the present time.

With no knowledge at all:

- Just trading by intuition, I mean, what I think that could happen to a currency from day to day
- No idea what a technical indicator was
- No idea what a bar or a candle bar was, I traded just with closed price line charts.
- Trading in only one timeframe, 15m in some pairs and 5m in others
- At the beginning, just placing profit targets with no stop loss limits (damn it, I can say now)
- Leaving open positions till they hit my profit limit or at least converted to a small profit, cero profit or the worst scenario a little small loss.
- No money management at all, no idea about risk and capital preservation

I now realized what lucky (and stupid) I was at that time and don’t understand how it could happen. As I said, I was doing well at the point that I had 19k in my balance in July. I though at that time, I don’t see any money in my hands, so I make my first withdraw of 2000 via mnygram as well (completely disconnected from my bank account).

I withdraw the money and was extremely happy… “This works!!!” I said.

But something change…

The experiment

When I deposited in my broker account, I was nervous about if they were going to make the deposit or if they just ran away; but I settle down when I watched in my platform the capital ready to trade. This account has 200:1 leverage so if I open a 5000 position, it represent 25usd of capital.
At that time, the next few days big news were released, Bernanke was cutting rates and US dollar was by the floor at 1.558 (EURUSD)

In retrospective, I think that my initial strategy to trade the markets was just fundamental analysis, hoping a change in a currency when a big new was released. So I went long 5000 in gbpusd at 1.9692 and wait. What a surprise the next day, two hundred pips up and make a profit. 102usd up in my account in just one night!

The experiment began!!!

Background

I started with forex in April last year (2008) just for casualty. I was looking for any kind of investment to take. I watched the news and keeping an eye in economic news and thought, I can to it. I was looking for investments on stocks or oil, and then I found a zillion brokerage services, and open a demo account with one of them. Firstly, I didn’t have any idea of what the hell was forex; even with the broker platform running. So, I opened a position and wait, looking the little line going up or down or doing nothing as well. Watched in that position a profit or a loss, I don’t remember, finally I get what was all about (not how to trade but how it work). I realized what the hell leverage was and how it could help me (but not how it could ruin me just as happen next). No idea what an order was, neither limits, pips, spread, money management, margin call (I learnt that one in the worst hard way).

At that time, I didn’t know anything about technical analysis or anything about markets. Time goes by and demo account expired. Then I looked for another broker, someone with a better trading platform and with a better way to transfer funds, deposits and withdraws as well, but disconnected with my bank account (I distrust by nature), so I found it. I deposited 300usd via mnygram on April 29 2008. Because a welcoming bonus, broker duplicate my deposit to 600usd and that was my initial capital. At that time, I thought, if I lost 300usd, not a big deal so let’s give it a shot.

Keep reading the next post…

First blog entry ever

So well, this is it. The intention to this blog is to keep track over the forex market and the possible trades that I could make. Properly this is a log or journal, but using nowadays terms, just we’ll called blog.
I don’t want to make incredible long any entry because anyone have enough time to waste, but I hope to cover every single aspect about what I considered to take a position, all my hesitation and determination, failures and victories.
As for the title of this entry, this is my first blog entry ever, and I hope I can keep up to date this blog, even I’m through a very difficult harsh time in my life of uncertainly and depression. So if you read some comments a little dark in your point of view, you know why.

Definitely, this blog is for my review and analysis and I don’t care if no one visits it, but if you, the reader, think that you can help me in any aspect of my analysis, any kind of help is well appreciated. Using the words of a extremely good forex trader that I had the privilege to mail with a few times, I’m a rat in the dismal rat race but I’m here to probe the opposite.

Final words… English is my second language, so if you found some grammar errors, I apologize in advance. The intention of this blog is to practice my language skills as well. I speak Spanish and I’m trying to learn german as well, so you could mail me in this three languages.

In futures entries I’m going to explain all my background and issues along the way.