Thursday, April 30, 2009

Trust your analysis, Again!


Two days ago I was almost entering a long trade in USDJPY but I decided to wait. Bad decision. As you can analyze in the next chart, all the confluences gave a green light to enter the trade, but hesitation is something that I have to overcome.


Tuesday candlebar was a confirmation of a new uptrend coming,also we have a oversold stochastics crossover and pointing up. Wednesday and thursday just confirm my initial thought and regrets are carving my brain.

Again it's not healthy to count imaginary pips, won or lost, but in this trade that could result on a 224 pips aprox. winning position.

Now, for me, the target to this uptrend could be the previous resistance level that coincide with a strong, big, round number 100.00; for me doesn't make any sense to enter the trade now... it's too late.

We have to wait till market gives more clues about what could happen next. Price could reach 100.00 but nothing is for sure in this life, I'd say. The alternate scenario could be a downtrend starting on friday, that could result in a new low beyond 96.00, even 94 or 93.

A conclusion of this missed trade, it seems that I'm starting to undertand this thing... one step at a time.