Saturday, October 3, 2009

gbpusd

On monday 28th price almost reached my target at 1.5758.  Price reached 1.5770 as low that day, only 12 pips away from my target.  I´m not discarting that target yet, because a few things around my head.  This is what we got...



In my post on sunday night (sep 20th), price was forming a bulish candle but on monday 21st, at the close, we had a doji formed that confirmed a pullback in the days ahead.  I wrote that price could reach even 1.6422 and amazingly price closed at 1.6424 forming a doji as we can see in the 4H chart posted below. That´s only two pips away from my expectations.  Then, price continue to go lower and lower...


I have labeled on the 4H chart some elliot wave counts, are we at the end of a five wave? don´t know. Wave five should go lower than wave three so that´s why I´m not discarding the 1.5758 target.  But we have stochastics crossover and pointing up, so... what is it suppose to mean?

Why I didn´t post anything in this twelve past days... I was going to but I wanted to see what the market was doing, specially yesterday, nfp friday.  I just wanted to see what effect could cause in my previous analysis, but guess what... it seems to me that nothing at all.  Fundamental vs technical...  I think that we have a winner.

Sum up... reviewing the daily chart, the question would be, are we at the end of a three-legs corrective pattern? or we are going to see a five wave downtrend pattern. Time will tell...

If you are wondering if I entered... no, I did not.
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