Thursday, September 10, 2009

GBPUSD sep10

The sHs pattern seems that was true, so, the cross went up from 1.6200 aprox to 1.6646 so that´s 446 pips in six days. I would like to be in the trade but I didn´t jump in.


What is happening now?... Not too clear to me but this is what I´m seeing...

We have completed a five-wave cycle labeled with green numbers. Blue ABC waves represent a possible reverse pattern, then, a first leg in a new downtrend.

I´ve drawn fibonacci levels and seems to me that wave two could be reaching the 38.2 level. Stochastics are overbought and seems a possible cross to the downside. Remember that round numbers are resistances too! so 1.6700 will be something to take care about it. Tomorrow the markets will give more clues about it. If we see a doji, that could be a confirmation of an exhaustion of bullish traders.

The alternative scenario would be a bullish candle breaking the 38.2 level. The next resistance level would be 23.6 and if the price breaks it too, the downtrend have to be dismissed and price would go beyond 1,7040 (august 5th high).

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