Aussie

Reviewing my previous post, that missed entry will be remembered.  I should not commit previous mistakes and this blog is going to help me with this.   By now the aussie is far away in the sky and I don't see a strong reason for a reversal.  Right now is just testing its previous high, which is the 2008 high at 0.9849, which coincide to be the high of all times, or at least within twenty years of data that I have.

That high has been broken in today's trading bar, reaching 0.9917.   That tells me basically two things... price will go higher but has some resistances to overcome first.  Second, a retracement is more than likely to occur soon.   If price makes a breakout of its previous high, the next obvious resistance would be the 1.000 which is relatively close to price action.  The retracement should occur eventually and a possible retest of its previous resistance zone, transformed now in support, around 0.9400 (0.9380/0.9420). A trade could be trigger here with a first target at 1.000 and a second target just as far as price wants to go through a trailing stop.  Right now stochastics is overbought and the possible retracement could follow.

The daily presents more data to analyze.  The trend is clearly up so why I would like to trade against it?  A correct move would be wait for a retracement and go long with the flow.  Today's bar is not closed yet but is showing a reversal candle. I've drawn an upward trend channel which has broken to the upside; I also have drawn a regression channel which is still valid.  A break to the downside would mean the start of the retracement and a possible test of the lower line of the channel which coincides with a previous resistance zone.  We can see there tuesday's candle with a long lower shadow, which seemed to me by that day, a possible break but resulted in a false break out.  Price is really close to my extensions between 0.9926/50 where I was expecting to see the retracement, but because the regression channel is holding, that zone might be reached.  Because 1.000 is really close, I would not be surprised if price spikes that high before the decline. Stochastics is overbought and there's divergence on MACD.

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Another pair...

This time I'm posting the eurchf, which seems to be presenting a trade opportunity.  Analyzing the weekly chart we can see price in a downtrend since october 2007.  Lately this downtrend have had more volatility showing a steep decline in price since may this year reaching its low @1.2765 in september 8th.  Usually when people says "that can't go lower... (or higher)" usually it goes.  We have seen this with gold, when the 1k mark was broke, just sky is the limit, with prices as high as 1360 per ounce.

Even though price has bounced from that low. Points to consider: convergence on MACD and by now a clear crossover on stoch.  In the daily below I've drawn several lines that I consider important. First to consider is the downtrend channel where price has been bouncing. Right now the pair is trading in a critical zone due is testing the upper line of the channel, so a breakout could mean a further advance in price and a possible test of previous highs.  Because today's candle is not closed yet, we cannot say if there is a false break out or a real one.  I've drawn a support line which is still valid and a break of this one could mean a retracement in price to test the previous low and even break it to found a historical new one.  Time will tell...

Going deeper, in the four hour chart, the trend is up. Right now there is a short term trade opportunity.  As usual, price is always right.  It seems that an ascending triangle is forming and tomorrow or within three trading days will be broken.  As obvious as might sound, we have two possible scenarios...  a break to the upside would break the long term trend, which it's possible but really difficult to do. The triangle is ascendant so more than likely that "should" happen, but...

Price has formed not quite perfect but a double top, and stochastics is almost overbought. The eurchf is trading around a resistance zone which coincides with a previous not-so-representative high and we have also a .382 retracement from the last swing in the daily chart at 1.3481. A break to the downside could be more probable but we have to wait and see what Price wants to do.  Again, and again, and again, price is the best indicator.  Tomorrow there is the US NFP and this could cause a lot of volatility and noise, so... better stay in the fence...
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A really hard time for the loonie...

Finally seems like the usdcad is resuming its downtrend.  Analyzing the weekly, price has been in a consolidation phase for quite a lot. Actually it's like one year since price had bounced around the 1.05s, without any clear signal of continuation or reversal, ranging between 1.03s and 1.07s.

Since april this year, price started to form a symmetrical triangle and it was matter of time for price to break either way, and it seems that decided to resume its down trend, at least for now, and should test previous lows.

In the weekly chart we can see the current bar completely outside the triangle, but we should wait to its close to see and decide. Could be a FalseBreakOut, though.   Also we are reaching a strong support zone considering the trend line drawn on orange from november 2007 to april 2010.  I'm still bearish on this one because price broke the 1.0300 level which was a previous strong resistance/support, so more than likely the loonie could trend again to the downside.  The 200sma is pointing down and we don't want to trade against the trend.  If we are in a false break out, price should test previous lows and bounce back to takeout previous highs to confirm that a new uptrend is in place.

In the daily we can see in a closer look the symmetrical triangle and how it was broken to the downside. I've also drawn which seems to be a new downtrend channel in clear blue.   Although price broke the triangle, today found support at the lower line of the channel and also in the orange trend line as well.  Again I'm a little confuse about what could happen.  In the daily the trend is down but there are a few levels to break before continuation.  If there is no break to the downside, price could go to test the upper line of the channel, but if the break do occur to the down side,  there is a narrow zone with some confluence of numbers that could attract price.  There are some fib extensions and projections that coincide with the previous low, in the range of 0.9956 to 0.9930.    The price to reach this zone also have to break the big round number of 1.0000 which tends to be a major psychological support.

Going even closer to the market, in the 4H chart, another symmetrical triangle formed and was broken as well, providing a nice short term trade opportunity (which I didn't take).  The break of the triangle trend line, then a retest providing a safe place for an order.  With a possible first target within the zone 1.0059 and 1.0078 which are the range of several confluence of fib numbers.  Because this trade is after the facts, it hasn't  much validity now, although could leave the precedent when another opportunity appears in the future, and it will.

By now price shows convergence in MACD which might suggest a possible reversal.  Time will tell...
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Meanwhile...

I'm going to post my others analysis, that way this blog will have more activity. In each post there is a label option, so each pair or cross will be labeled. This allows me to study the progress of each currency analysis in a sequential order.
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One more week...

The close of the current week might provide me a better outlook of what could happen next.  Analyzing the weekly, last week's bar had closed as a doji with long wicks,  which basically tells me that there is a lot of indecision.  This doji could represent a reversal signal but more confluences are needed.

The current week's bar is still forming so I shouldn't consider it yet but is showing a possible break out to the upside.  There is a catch, though.  Still in downtrend. Price is relatively close to the 120sma which has presented some trouble for price acting as support/resistance in the past;  also we have to consider the round number and previous top @1.6000.  Maybe the daily could provide us more clues.

Comparing the daily chart from my last post, price was rejected from the resistance line but one day later bounced back to the upside and by now, definitely price has broke the resistance line.  I've drawn a regression channel which I expected price could broke to the downside and finally resume its downtrend, giving some credit to the elliot wave count.  Because price broke and then bounced back to this channel, I think that the upside should be more probable. Right now price is trading inside the regression channel.  If price brakes to the upside and trades beyond 1.60s, two conclusions... or I'm making a wrong assessment about elliot theory which means I should revise my wave counts, or this concept should be forgotten.

I've also attached a 4H chart.  Since last week price has been trading in an upward channel.  If continues bouncing inside this channel, price might brake the 1.6000 and continue forward, but, a break to the downside could happen and price should test previous lows.  We can see from this chart how price has struggle around this 1.57/1.59 zone

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