Daily
4H
Showing posts with label eurchf. Show all posts
Showing posts with label eurchf. Show all posts
Friday, November 19, 2010
Sunday, November 7, 2010
Eurchf
Weekly
Last bar in the chart shows an outside bar which also is a bearish engulfing candle. For me this candle means a possible continuation to the downside aligning price action to the longterm downtrend. The last few swings showed similar behaviors with a steep decline every time. The other scenario would be this is a possible retracement from the current midterm uptrend. If price breaks the low of this candle, further decline could occur.
Daily
With the same regression channel in place from my last post, price has formed an inside bar. Considering a break of the high or the low of the mother candle as a sign of further direction, price broke the low and also the regression channel, suggesting further decline in price. What is really interesting of this chart right now is where price is sitting at the moment. Resistance became support and price has found trouble to pass through the previous R/S zone. The two possible scenarios: first, again comparing previous swings, price just drop sharply in similar circumstances so further decline could happen because we are still in a longterm downtrend. The second scenario for me as price has found support, more than likely, a bounce up is going to happen next. The 120sma is also providing some support.
Therefore, we may see a 2B formation or a continuation but again price action must be considered. The high and the low of the last bar of the chart will provide clues of future price direction.
4H
If we were analyzing only this timeframe, I would be more bullish than bearish. In the last swings, price has been making higher highs and higher lows suggesting that we are currently in an uptrend. Again, just looking at this chart, right now price might be presenting a long setup. Price has encountered support in a former resistance zone and has stalled, forming a bullish candle that just touched the 200sma and bounced up. This zone also coincide with the 0.382 fib ret. The last bar of the chart has made a shy higher high and a higher low from the previous one, and seems that the bears just couldn't push lower, resulting in a really small range, or in Wickoff terms, really small spread. If price do bounce up from the support zone, at least should reach the 1.3686 but if fails, 1.3265 would be the next possible target towards the south.
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Last bar in the chart shows an outside bar which also is a bearish engulfing candle. For me this candle means a possible continuation to the downside aligning price action to the longterm downtrend. The last few swings showed similar behaviors with a steep decline every time. The other scenario would be this is a possible retracement from the current midterm uptrend. If price breaks the low of this candle, further decline could occur.
Daily
With the same regression channel in place from my last post, price has formed an inside bar. Considering a break of the high or the low of the mother candle as a sign of further direction, price broke the low and also the regression channel, suggesting further decline in price. What is really interesting of this chart right now is where price is sitting at the moment. Resistance became support and price has found trouble to pass through the previous R/S zone. The two possible scenarios: first, again comparing previous swings, price just drop sharply in similar circumstances so further decline could happen because we are still in a longterm downtrend. The second scenario for me as price has found support, more than likely, a bounce up is going to happen next. The 120sma is also providing some support.
Therefore, we may see a 2B formation or a continuation but again price action must be considered. The high and the low of the last bar of the chart will provide clues of future price direction.
4H
If we were analyzing only this timeframe, I would be more bullish than bearish. In the last swings, price has been making higher highs and higher lows suggesting that we are currently in an uptrend. Again, just looking at this chart, right now price might be presenting a long setup. Price has encountered support in a former resistance zone and has stalled, forming a bullish candle that just touched the 200sma and bounced up. This zone also coincide with the 0.382 fib ret. The last bar of the chart has made a shy higher high and a higher low from the previous one, and seems that the bears just couldn't push lower, resulting in a really small range, or in Wickoff terms, really small spread. If price do bounce up from the support zone, at least should reach the 1.3686 but if fails, 1.3265 would be the next possible target towards the south.
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Tuesday, November 2, 2010
eurchf, price's spoken louder!
Price has kicked my butt...
In my last post I expected a decline in price once the 1.3265 level was broken. That never happened. Instead, price continued slowly upwards.
Weekly
We can see price has been climbing since its last low. In the chart below there are two interesting bars to analyze. Those candles just formed at the trend line (Daily chart) but were bullish in nature with the close above the midpoint of each bar and presented long wicks to the downside. Once the high was taken out, further rise in price should be expected and indeed occur. Three bars later we can see each of those have made higher highs and higher lows. We cannot consider the last bar due it's not finish and actually is going to be interesting to see what happens with this one.
Daily
We are not anymore, by far, in the downtrend channel. I was expecting a retest of the sep8th low, but with the break of the channel we saw price struggling within a 228 pips range. While price was in the range, it didn't show any attempt to test the low at 1.3265, instead, price broke the high of the range and continued higher and higher. I was expecting to see resistance at the 120sma but didn't happen. I've drawn a regression channel that is holding. We are approaching another resistance zone between 1.3924/1.3875 from previous highs, also the 200sma. A break from this zone, with several closes above it, could mean further advance to the upside, while a break of the regression channel could mean a resume of the major downtrend.
4H
Once again, here I have to say that my analysis was wrong. I expected a break of the 1.3265 low and at least a decline in price to 1.3200. That break never happened. I was considering enter the short at 1.3400 but with price steadily climbing, I wasn't sure so I didn't. Here I would like to stress some issues that I didn't consider. Price had climbed above the 200sma and 120sma. The 120sma provided support a few times before. I considered the cluster 1.3457/81 as resistance and with the 1.3500 above, price respected it, but not for long. What I found interesting is that an ascending triangle started to form and the break to the upside followed.
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Wednesday, October 13, 2010
The price has spoken
All the information you need is in the charts and price is the best indicator.
Ergo, charts should contain only the tools that you actually are using and not a throw up of indicators, trend lines, and so on. That could only lead to paralysis of analysis which I remember it happened to me a couple of times like two years ago, where I just got freeze and didn't knew what I was doing... my early apprentice stage...
That's why right now I'm apologizing in advance for the next chart because it seems like a clown puke all over the place. Even though, there is the information that I need to see right now.
If we remember, price was near a possible movement... and it seems to me that the time arrive. Analyzing the daily chart, we had a false breakout to the upside and two consecutive bearish days before reach the short-term trend line, but yesterday's bar just passed through it. With a breakout to the downside, which was more favorable as I posted before, price is now testing its previous support trend line that now became resistance. Also we have the major downtrend line (blue channel) holding price action. A bearish crossover in the stoch may suggest that the upside should be limited and also it leave the overbought zone which suggest that the previous high should last for several days.
In the 4H chart price has just acted as expected, finding resistance within the cluster between 1.3457/81 which contains a few fib retracements, extensions, projections and also a former minor swing high. With the trend line breached, a retest would be expected and just did. Analyzing the chart below, price now "should" take out its last minor swing low at 1.3265 before we are more "confident" about this analysis. If price takes that low, as a first possible target I've plotted a cluster in the chart that just hits right the 1.3200 for a short-term trade but this position would work better in the longer time frame as we had analyzed it.
More confluence of events are present in this chart; we have a slight divergence on the stoch and to me, it seems that a top head and shoulders is forming. And now some issues to stay aware of, before taking any trade. Price is always right. Offer/Demand is that simple! We are taking the stake that the euro is going to sink, therefore, do we have a reason for that? I'm not a fundamental analyst but from the technical point of view, more than likely, is going to happen. We have still a little room for stochastic to go higher (momentum!) so a bearish crossover would be a better signal to trigger.
What if everything goes wrong and my analysis is rubbish... well, that's why stops are for. If a climb in price takes out the previous high, more than likely a further advance will be made.
What is the market trying to tell us? My ideal set-up would have been an entry @1.3400 with a stop at 1.3500 and a first target at 1.3200. That gives us a 1:2 ratio. Considering the larger timeframe, the risk/reward would be a lot more than that.
No, I haven't enter the trade. Let's see how develops or if there's another short opportunity. My head is screaming: get short! get short! But price is now at 1.3377. I just have to recover my confident which I lost somewhere in the ashes from my burned account.
.
Ergo, charts should contain only the tools that you actually are using and not a throw up of indicators, trend lines, and so on. That could only lead to paralysis of analysis which I remember it happened to me a couple of times like two years ago, where I just got freeze and didn't knew what I was doing... my early apprentice stage...
That's why right now I'm apologizing in advance for the next chart because it seems like a clown puke all over the place. Even though, there is the information that I need to see right now.
If we remember, price was near a possible movement... and it seems to me that the time arrive. Analyzing the daily chart, we had a false breakout to the upside and two consecutive bearish days before reach the short-term trend line, but yesterday's bar just passed through it. With a breakout to the downside, which was more favorable as I posted before, price is now testing its previous support trend line that now became resistance. Also we have the major downtrend line (blue channel) holding price action. A bearish crossover in the stoch may suggest that the upside should be limited and also it leave the overbought zone which suggest that the previous high should last for several days.
In the 4H chart price has just acted as expected, finding resistance within the cluster between 1.3457/81 which contains a few fib retracements, extensions, projections and also a former minor swing high. With the trend line breached, a retest would be expected and just did. Analyzing the chart below, price now "should" take out its last minor swing low at 1.3265 before we are more "confident" about this analysis. If price takes that low, as a first possible target I've plotted a cluster in the chart that just hits right the 1.3200 for a short-term trade but this position would work better in the longer time frame as we had analyzed it.
More confluence of events are present in this chart; we have a slight divergence on the stoch and to me, it seems that a top head and shoulders is forming. And now some issues to stay aware of, before taking any trade. Price is always right. Offer/Demand is that simple! We are taking the stake that the euro is going to sink, therefore, do we have a reason for that? I'm not a fundamental analyst but from the technical point of view, more than likely, is going to happen. We have still a little room for stochastic to go higher (momentum!) so a bearish crossover would be a better signal to trigger.
What if everything goes wrong and my analysis is rubbish... well, that's why stops are for. If a climb in price takes out the previous high, more than likely a further advance will be made.
What is the market trying to tell us? My ideal set-up would have been an entry @1.3400 with a stop at 1.3500 and a first target at 1.3200. That gives us a 1:2 ratio. Considering the larger timeframe, the risk/reward would be a lot more than that.
No, I haven't enter the trade. Let's see how develops or if there's another short opportunity. My head is screaming: get short! get short! But price is now at 1.3377. I just have to recover my confident which I lost somewhere in the ashes from my burned account.
.
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Another pair...
This time I'm posting the eurchf, which seems to be presenting a trade opportunity. Analyzing the weekly chart we can see price in a downtrend since october 2007. Lately this downtrend have had more volatility showing a steep decline in price since may this year reaching its low @1.2765 in september 8th. Usually when people says "that can't go lower... (or higher)" usually it goes. We have seen this with gold, when the 1k mark was broke, just sky is the limit, with prices as high as 1360 per ounce.
Even though price has bounced from that low. Points to consider: convergence on MACD and by now a clear crossover on stoch. In the daily below I've drawn several lines that I consider important. First to consider is the downtrend channel where price has been bouncing. Right now the pair is trading in a critical zone due is testing the upper line of the channel, so a breakout could mean a further advance in price and a possible test of previous highs. Because today's candle is not closed yet, we cannot say if there is a false break out or a real one. I've drawn a support line which is still valid and a break of this one could mean a retracement in price to test the previous low and even break it to found a historical new one. Time will tell...
Going deeper, in the four hour chart, the trend is up. Right now there is a short term trade opportunity. As usual, price is always right. It seems that an ascending triangle is forming and tomorrow or within three trading days will be broken. As obvious as might sound, we have two possible scenarios... a break to the upside would break the long term trend, which it's possible but really difficult to do. The triangle is ascendant so more than likely that "should" happen, but...
Price has formed not quite perfect but a double top, and stochastics is almost overbought. The eurchf is trading around a resistance zone which coincides with a previous not-so-representative high and we have also a .382 retracement from the last swing in the daily chart at 1.3481. A break to the downside could be more probable but we have to wait and see what Price wants to do. Again, and again, and again, price is the best indicator. Tomorrow there is the US NFP and this could cause a lot of volatility and noise, so... better stay in the fence...
.
Even though price has bounced from that low. Points to consider: convergence on MACD and by now a clear crossover on stoch. In the daily below I've drawn several lines that I consider important. First to consider is the downtrend channel where price has been bouncing. Right now the pair is trading in a critical zone due is testing the upper line of the channel, so a breakout could mean a further advance in price and a possible test of previous highs. Because today's candle is not closed yet, we cannot say if there is a false break out or a real one. I've drawn a support line which is still valid and a break of this one could mean a retracement in price to test the previous low and even break it to found a historical new one. Time will tell...
Going deeper, in the four hour chart, the trend is up. Right now there is a short term trade opportunity. As usual, price is always right. It seems that an ascending triangle is forming and tomorrow or within three trading days will be broken. As obvious as might sound, we have two possible scenarios... a break to the upside would break the long term trend, which it's possible but really difficult to do. The triangle is ascendant so more than likely that "should" happen, but...
Price has formed not quite perfect but a double top, and stochastics is almost overbought. The eurchf is trading around a resistance zone which coincides with a previous not-so-representative high and we have also a .382 retracement from the last swing in the daily chart at 1.3481. A break to the downside could be more probable but we have to wait and see what Price wants to do. Again, and again, and again, price is the best indicator. Tomorrow there is the US NFP and this could cause a lot of volatility and noise, so... better stay in the fence...
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