Daily
4H
Showing posts with label gbpusd. Show all posts
Showing posts with label gbpusd. Show all posts
Friday, November 19, 2010
Tuesday, November 9, 2010
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Cable
Weekly
With two more bars no much has change in the chart. What really catch the eye is last week behavior with a drop closing below the trend line drawn. Is it too soon to change the sentiment from bullish to bearish? I don't think that would be necessary at this point. The previous bar though closed as a doji with long wicks (could be considered as a spinning top) which made a higher high at 1.6107. This week bar took out the low, making a lower high. Is price making a reversal?
The next week close will provide a better picture of the situation. Price might be in just a correction (of the short term uptrend), so the further upward movement is still valid until the "B" low is taken out.
I've drawn a couple of lines I considered interesting. Watching the indicators (sincerely... I don't know why to bother) there is divergence on macd and the dtosc just made a bearish crossover.
Daily
Going closer, the daily and the 4H provides a better idea of price action. In this two past weeks, price retested the trendline to make a higher high within 6 months. Price formed a reverse hammer on friday 15th.
With last friday's close (22nd oct) it seems the purple trend line has been broken to the downside but price has found support at 1.5650. A close below this level would suggest further decline but price has first to beat a few support levels on the way if it is going to test the previous "B" low at 1.5297
Again, from this chart, my perspective is still bullish.
4H
Here I'm posting two 4H charts; one including all the past data from my last post of this pair, and the other with a zoom to recent price action.
Analyzing the first chart we can see Price indeed behaved as expected within elliot wave theory. Not quite exactly but at least in shape. Comparing last blog post 4H chart with the one below, price formed an impulse 5waves upward movement. Wave 4 found support at the 50% w3 retracement and the 120sma as confluence (second 4H graph). Price took off upwards taken out the w3 high and reaching the 127% fib extension from w4 and just shy from the channel projection. Wave 5 was really short lived but also developed into 5 waves. How we know last impulse movement is complete? Price has taken out w4 low.
If price completed a 5w impulse movement, a three wave corrective movement should occur (from the elliot wave perspective). If we are right now in this correction, a further decline would happen. I have labeled the "a" and "b" waves, but those would only be confirmed if price breaks the "a" low. Price might develop in a more complex correction than a simple abc or zigzag as it's called, but we always are assuming a simple one, so when Price gives us the information, we should react accordingly. Is price in a w2 of wave C?
Commenting the zoomed 4H chart. This is going to be a horrible week to day trade. Price has defined a 229 pips range with long bars and some inside bars. A few "important" resistance/support levels and round numbers are near or within the range so it's going to be a interesting time to watch price action next week. Will 1.5650 hold or break? Prudence...
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With two more bars no much has change in the chart. What really catch the eye is last week behavior with a drop closing below the trend line drawn. Is it too soon to change the sentiment from bullish to bearish? I don't think that would be necessary at this point. The previous bar though closed as a doji with long wicks (could be considered as a spinning top) which made a higher high at 1.6107. This week bar took out the low, making a lower high. Is price making a reversal?
The next week close will provide a better picture of the situation. Price might be in just a correction (of the short term uptrend), so the further upward movement is still valid until the "B" low is taken out.
I've drawn a couple of lines I considered interesting. Watching the indicators (sincerely... I don't know why to bother) there is divergence on macd and the dtosc just made a bearish crossover.
Daily
Going closer, the daily and the 4H provides a better idea of price action. In this two past weeks, price retested the trendline to make a higher high within 6 months. Price formed a reverse hammer on friday 15th.
With last friday's close (22nd oct) it seems the purple trend line has been broken to the downside but price has found support at 1.5650. A close below this level would suggest further decline but price has first to beat a few support levels on the way if it is going to test the previous "B" low at 1.5297
Again, from this chart, my perspective is still bullish.
4H
Here I'm posting two 4H charts; one including all the past data from my last post of this pair, and the other with a zoom to recent price action.
Analyzing the first chart we can see Price indeed behaved as expected within elliot wave theory. Not quite exactly but at least in shape. Comparing last blog post 4H chart with the one below, price formed an impulse 5waves upward movement. Wave 4 found support at the 50% w3 retracement and the 120sma as confluence (second 4H graph). Price took off upwards taken out the w3 high and reaching the 127% fib extension from w4 and just shy from the channel projection. Wave 5 was really short lived but also developed into 5 waves. How we know last impulse movement is complete? Price has taken out w4 low.
If price completed a 5w impulse movement, a three wave corrective movement should occur (from the elliot wave perspective). If we are right now in this correction, a further decline would happen. I have labeled the "a" and "b" waves, but those would only be confirmed if price breaks the "a" low. Price might develop in a more complex correction than a simple abc or zigzag as it's called, but we always are assuming a simple one, so when Price gives us the information, we should react accordingly. Is price in a w2 of wave C?
Commenting the zoomed 4H chart. This is going to be a horrible week to day trade. Price has defined a 229 pips range with long bars and some inside bars. A few "important" resistance/support levels and round numbers are near or within the range so it's going to be a interesting time to watch price action next week. Will 1.5650 hold or break? Prudence...
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Sunday, October 10, 2010
gbpusd recount
A more clearly scenario for the cable with the close of the last bar in the weekly. Price broke the trend line to the upside and price traded beyond the previous high (1.5998 aug 8th) reaching a new high at 1.6018 in october 7th. I've changed the previous elliot wave count, regarding the current events. Due the previous high was taken out, I'm assuming that we are currently in a wave C of an abc upward correction where price could reach the 1.6380/1.6480 zone, but should not trade beyond the previous high at 1.7042 (5 aug 2009 high). That would invalidate this count.
With price around 1.5960 right now, analyzing the indicators we see that dtosc still has some room to the upside but we are seeing divergence on MACD. As always, we should wait and see what price wants to tell us. Price should test some resistances zones in the up movement first though. The 120sma is still there and we haven't beat the 1.6000 completely so a breakout of this level would suggest a better opportunity.
If we see the daily, basically is the same sentiment than the weekly chart. For me the upside if more favorable right now. Price has been trending up since september and the previous trend line that was broken, is now acting as support. With this chart there is something that just time will tell. If we see the indicators at the bottom of the chart, they are contradicting each other so... what the hell? There is divergence on MACD and the stochastic is in a bullish stream, as I call it, but in overbought zone. Definitely we have to wait and see how price reacts. Price can make a reversal and retest the previous trend line which became support and at the same time we could see a decline in stochastics and a possible opportunity to go long. I've drawn a small timeframe trend line where price is squeezing through. A break to the downside could happen but a break out bar above the 1.6000 would be a confirmation to the bullish sentiment.
I've attached the 4H as well, now with a bit more information. Even though it's horrible how price has been behaving lately (due the trendline breakout discussed in the daily and weekly charts), we can see clearly the main swings. From the A high, we have had a three wave correction downwards towards the point B, then as explained in the weekly chart, my opinion is that price currently is in a wave C which, as expected, should develop in a 5 wave impulsive upward movement. By now, we have a confirmation that the correction abc is complete due wave 1 has taken out the "b" high. Price right now is in its wave 3 or conforming the wave 4.
One observation that I consider important; At point B we can see a complex head and shoulders bottom. Patterns are not my main analysis but I'm starting to value them as a tool.
Two possible scenarios that I'm considering: either price moves forward in the wave 3 trading beyond the 1.6000 and retraces to form wave 4 finding support at the 1.6000 then continues its wave five to the 1.6380/1.6480 zone.
The other scenario would be a retrace right now to form wave 4, and then go for the 1.6380/1.6480 in an extended wave 5. I'm really bullish in this, BUT, I can be death wrong. The important thing here is the technical analysis and money management. We are trying to have the odds in our favor to make a trade with a High probability outcome. And one more thing... Always, always and always you should trade with stops loss orders.
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With price around 1.5960 right now, analyzing the indicators we see that dtosc still has some room to the upside but we are seeing divergence on MACD. As always, we should wait and see what price wants to tell us. Price should test some resistances zones in the up movement first though. The 120sma is still there and we haven't beat the 1.6000 completely so a breakout of this level would suggest a better opportunity.
If we see the daily, basically is the same sentiment than the weekly chart. For me the upside if more favorable right now. Price has been trending up since september and the previous trend line that was broken, is now acting as support. With this chart there is something that just time will tell. If we see the indicators at the bottom of the chart, they are contradicting each other so... what the hell? There is divergence on MACD and the stochastic is in a bullish stream, as I call it, but in overbought zone. Definitely we have to wait and see how price reacts. Price can make a reversal and retest the previous trend line which became support and at the same time we could see a decline in stochastics and a possible opportunity to go long. I've drawn a small timeframe trend line where price is squeezing through. A break to the downside could happen but a break out bar above the 1.6000 would be a confirmation to the bullish sentiment.
I've attached the 4H as well, now with a bit more information. Even though it's horrible how price has been behaving lately (due the trendline breakout discussed in the daily and weekly charts), we can see clearly the main swings. From the A high, we have had a three wave correction downwards towards the point B, then as explained in the weekly chart, my opinion is that price currently is in a wave C which, as expected, should develop in a 5 wave impulsive upward movement. By now, we have a confirmation that the correction abc is complete due wave 1 has taken out the "b" high. Price right now is in its wave 3 or conforming the wave 4.
One observation that I consider important; At point B we can see a complex head and shoulders bottom. Patterns are not my main analysis but I'm starting to value them as a tool.
Two possible scenarios that I'm considering: either price moves forward in the wave 3 trading beyond the 1.6000 and retraces to form wave 4 finding support at the 1.6000 then continues its wave five to the 1.6380/1.6480 zone.
The other scenario would be a retrace right now to form wave 4, and then go for the 1.6380/1.6480 in an extended wave 5. I'm really bullish in this, BUT, I can be death wrong. The important thing here is the technical analysis and money management. We are trying to have the odds in our favor to make a trade with a High probability outcome. And one more thing... Always, always and always you should trade with stops loss orders.
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Wednesday, October 6, 2010
One more week...
The close of the current week might provide me a better outlook of what could happen next. Analyzing the weekly, last week's bar had closed as a doji with long wicks, which basically tells me that there is a lot of indecision. This doji could represent a reversal signal but more confluences are needed.
The current week's bar is still forming so I shouldn't consider it yet but is showing a possible break out to the upside. There is a catch, though. Still in downtrend. Price is relatively close to the 120sma which has presented some trouble for price acting as support/resistance in the past; also we have to consider the round number and previous top @1.6000. Maybe the daily could provide us more clues.
Comparing the daily chart from my last post, price was rejected from the resistance line but one day later bounced back to the upside and by now, definitely price has broke the resistance line. I've drawn a regression channel which I expected price could broke to the downside and finally resume its downtrend, giving some credit to the elliot wave count. Because price broke and then bounced back to this channel, I think that the upside should be more probable. Right now price is trading inside the regression channel. If price brakes to the upside and trades beyond 1.60s, two conclusions... or I'm making a wrong assessment about elliot theory which means I should revise my wave counts, or this concept should be forgotten.
I've also attached a 4H chart. Since last week price has been trading in an upward channel. If continues bouncing inside this channel, price might brake the 1.6000 and continue forward, but, a break to the downside could happen and price should test previous lows. We can see from this chart how price has struggle around this 1.57/1.59 zone
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The current week's bar is still forming so I shouldn't consider it yet but is showing a possible break out to the upside. There is a catch, though. Still in downtrend. Price is relatively close to the 120sma which has presented some trouble for price acting as support/resistance in the past; also we have to consider the round number and previous top @1.6000. Maybe the daily could provide us more clues.
I've also attached a 4H chart. Since last week price has been trading in an upward channel. If continues bouncing inside this channel, price might brake the 1.6000 and continue forward, but, a break to the downside could happen and price should test previous lows. We can see from this chart how price has struggle around this 1.57/1.59 zone
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Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Something is gonna happen soon... gbpusd
At the moment of writing, price is around 1.5840 and still presents sign of indecision. Tomorrow's bar is beginning to conform and is showing some bullish momentum, although I would like to analyze based in today's closed candle.
Below is the weekly. Even though the current bar is not closed yet, we are at the middle of the week, and it is an indecision bar. We have to wait and see how it closes. Note the previous bar has risen up to 1.5843 (friday 24th sep high) and found resistance in the way as expected. If we analyze the daily chart we can see price formed a couple of indecision bars around that resistance zone, which represents a forming doji as the current week passes. Nevertheless, and again, we have to wait and see it at the close. I have attached another resistance/support line that is worth to study.
In a closer look at the daily, for three consecutive days, price has struggle around this zone, reaching as high as 1.5856, but no bar has broken the resistance line. We are really close to a breakout, but more than likely I'm thinking that could be a FalseBreakOut. On the close of the September 30th candle we can analyze this more deeply. Even I really want to see this weekly's bar as it closes. That could give us more clues.
Let's wait and remember, price is always right.
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Below is the weekly. Even though the current bar is not closed yet, we are at the middle of the week, and it is an indecision bar. We have to wait and see how it closes. Note the previous bar has risen up to 1.5843 (friday 24th sep high) and found resistance in the way as expected. If we analyze the daily chart we can see price formed a couple of indecision bars around that resistance zone, which represents a forming doji as the current week passes. Nevertheless, and again, we have to wait and see it at the close. I have attached another resistance/support line that is worth to study.
In a closer look at the daily, for three consecutive days, price has struggle around this zone, reaching as high as 1.5856, but no bar has broken the resistance line. We are really close to a breakout, but more than likely I'm thinking that could be a FalseBreakOut. On the close of the September 30th candle we can analyze this more deeply. Even I really want to see this weekly's bar as it closes. That could give us more clues.
Let's wait and remember, price is always right.
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Thursday, September 23, 2010
Back to the gbpusd
Not too much to comment due the large timeframe plot. Tomorrow Bernanke speaks so I would like to wait and see how much this affect the markets. Not beeing myself a fundamental analist, I could say that anyone understand that behind charts there are people, and people react to news events, therefore the charts reflects what's the general sentiment.
Below is the weekly, it seems that price is in consolidation phase. Price might break out the trend line to the upside and test previous highs, or find resistance and go lower to test the lower trend line drawn. If we analize the stoch, it seems to be in a bullish direction so price could break to the upside. If this is the case, price could go to 1.64s zone to held structure (last resistance fib level from previous swing); although if this level is broken, price could test previous highs @1.70s. To me this pair is still bearish if we watch the movings averages.
In the daily price seems to me that it's going upward. I have to wait and see what happens with these setup. We had a previous swing high, then a retracement to the 0.618 fib zone which coincides with a previous resistance level around 1.5450/1.5500. That's a 200pips range within price just was bouncing inside. Finally price decided and went north.
Some points of confluence: 0.618fib level held, also price has made a few closes above the 200 sma, convergence in MACD, stoch bullish stream. By now, the 0.786 level is broken, so price should go up, I think, and maybe find resistance at the trend line. If broken, price could go further.
An alternative scenario, if price finds itself struggling with the resistance of the trend line (around 0.236 fib level @1.5832 and 1.272 fib extension in 4H timeframe @1.5846), price could go down and test the other trend line in purple and if broken, then test the previous trend line around 1.45s
Below is the weekly, it seems that price is in consolidation phase. Price might break out the trend line to the upside and test previous highs, or find resistance and go lower to test the lower trend line drawn. If we analize the stoch, it seems to be in a bullish direction so price could break to the upside. If this is the case, price could go to 1.64s zone to held structure (last resistance fib level from previous swing); although if this level is broken, price could test previous highs @1.70s. To me this pair is still bearish if we watch the movings averages.
In the daily price seems to me that it's going upward. I have to wait and see what happens with these setup. We had a previous swing high, then a retracement to the 0.618 fib zone which coincides with a previous resistance level around 1.5450/1.5500. That's a 200pips range within price just was bouncing inside. Finally price decided and went north.
Some points of confluence: 0.618fib level held, also price has made a few closes above the 200 sma, convergence in MACD, stoch bullish stream. By now, the 0.786 level is broken, so price should go up, I think, and maybe find resistance at the trend line. If broken, price could go further.
An alternative scenario, if price finds itself struggling with the resistance of the trend line (around 0.236 fib level @1.5832 and 1.272 fib extension in 4H timeframe @1.5846), price could go down and test the other trend line in purple and if broken, then test the previous trend line around 1.45s
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
Reminiscence from june 29th
I would like to post a few charts here. Just as a reminiscence about my previous aproach to technical analysis.
First the weekly... the 23.6 fib ret @1.4337 held extremely well and price took off northbound.
Does it mean that we are in a bullish stream? I'm not quite convinced. As told before, I'm not really convinced in patterns or elliot wave theory, but, we had a 5-wave downward movement completed at the 23.6 fib ret @1.4337 with a beautiful confluence of numbers; and here is when I get confused. If we see the bigger picture there is always something that contradicts the previous analysis. We had a massive 5-wave upstream from mid 2001 to nov 07, then a sharp decline till jan 09. I assume that everybody knows why the "Sharp", but since then, it seems that we are in a bullish pattern. First leg from jan09 to aug09; second wave a retracement up to 23.6 fib level in may2010. That could mean that we are in a wave three? Not quite sure because price stalled in aug2010 and by now is heading southbound. That could mean that we are not in a uptrend wave-3, rather starting a 3 of a massive (3) downward wave. If we analyze different MAs we can see that we are still in a bearish market.
In a closer look, on the daily, price pass through the 1.5500 level and it's heading southbound. Price should go lower to test previous lows, maybe the 1.4800 zone with some resistance in between, more than likely around the round numbers and fib levels. What if price finds support and head upwards? Price should at least try to reach the 1.27 fib extension @1.6479. That's quite a lot from here.
Final thoughts for today. Although this kind of analysis seems to be accurate enough, it doesn't provide a valid entry point. Oscilators and technical analysis indicators are not as useful as beginers might think.
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First the weekly... the 23.6 fib ret @1.4337 held extremely well and price took off northbound.
In a closer look, on the daily, price pass through the 1.5500 level and it's heading southbound. Price should go lower to test previous lows, maybe the 1.4800 zone with some resistance in between, more than likely around the round numbers and fib levels. What if price finds support and head upwards? Price should at least try to reach the 1.27 fib extension @1.6479. That's quite a lot from here.
Final thoughts for today. Although this kind of analysis seems to be accurate enough, it doesn't provide a valid entry point. Oscilators and technical analysis indicators are not as useful as beginers might think.
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Tuesday, June 29, 2010
What could happen from now on
So we have had a lot of volatility. Actually I was swearing at myself because I have my platform with 6 pairs and in every single of them an analisys with fibs, trend lines, etc. And almost everyone seems have worked in this past month an a half.
USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDCAD and of course GBPUSD and its high correlated mate EURUSD. Those are the pairs that I follow. I could post an update from all of those but in my current situation I don't see it possible.
Returning to our main analisys, GBPUSD. Below is the weekly chart. To have a bigger picture of the analisys, and due my lack of time to update the blog, this timeframe is adecuated.
I'm not really convinced of patterns but I've read about people that are very good at it. A few months ago I assumed that we had a bullish Gartley but price continues to go lower and lower. Remembering some elliot theory, we only have either, an impulsive (5legs) or a corrective waves (3legs). If we consider this, and if we assume that a downward five-wave impulsive movement is completed, then we must expect an upward corrective three-wave movement. Bad news for the pound due this could mean that price should go a little high right now, but then a sharp decline could happen, to test the previous lows and even break them.
Next is the daily.
Once again, I've labeled some minor e-waves. I know, I know... there is a mistake, but market analisys is not a exact science. One level that I would like to remark is the 1.4478/73 obtained from the 1.414 fib extension from last swing, and 1.0 fib projection from wave-1. Price crashed just in between @1.4475
Next is the 240 chart
Here I didn't post any note due is just to view what price have done since my last analisys. I leave that channel and even a trend line, which seems that acted like a resistance level later (support became resistance). By now, those lines are not valid. I shrank a little bit the chart to include all price movement till today. We can see a 3-wave upward movement, though. Does this mean that price should retrace?
Next post will be an update for my forecast, although I don't like that word. There's not such thing!
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USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDCAD and of course GBPUSD and its high correlated mate EURUSD. Those are the pairs that I follow. I could post an update from all of those but in my current situation I don't see it possible.
Returning to our main analisys, GBPUSD. Below is the weekly chart. To have a bigger picture of the analisys, and due my lack of time to update the blog, this timeframe is adecuated.
I'm not really convinced of patterns but I've read about people that are very good at it. A few months ago I assumed that we had a bullish Gartley but price continues to go lower and lower. Remembering some elliot theory, we only have either, an impulsive (5legs) or a corrective waves (3legs). If we consider this, and if we assume that a downward five-wave impulsive movement is completed, then we must expect an upward corrective three-wave movement. Bad news for the pound due this could mean that price should go a little high right now, but then a sharp decline could happen, to test the previous lows and even break them.
Next is the daily.
Once again, I've labeled some minor e-waves. I know, I know... there is a mistake, but market analisys is not a exact science. One level that I would like to remark is the 1.4478/73 obtained from the 1.414 fib extension from last swing, and 1.0 fib projection from wave-1. Price crashed just in between @1.4475
Next is the 240 chart
Here I didn't post any note due is just to view what price have done since my last analisys. I leave that channel and even a trend line, which seems that acted like a resistance level later (support became resistance). By now, those lines are not valid. I shrank a little bit the chart to include all price movement till today. We can see a 3-wave upward movement, though. Does this mean that price should retrace?
Next post will be an update for my forecast, although I don't like that word. There's not such thing!
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Late gbpusd update from march7th
Greetings!
I have to apoligize about not updating my blog. Between two jobs and an occasional consultant work as CNC programmer, not much time to do what I really want to do.
Past march 7th I had the charts labeled to upload but, one thing and another, I couldn't. My previous analisys worked really well. Below are those charts that I couldn't post.
In the daily we can see that a wave 5 had completed at that time, nevertheless, price went lower later. I suggested as next possible target the 1.4337 level which amazingly was reached. More on that later.
Next is the 240 chart. We can see there that my analisys was valuable and beyond that, accurated enough.
You may be wondering why to post out-of-date charts. May have no sense to you, but it has to me. The main idea of this blog is to keep a record of my thoughts and progress at this, so...
Around the world news move the markets. I'm not a fundamental analyst, I have to agree with some principles, though. Is it coincidence that Europe is struggling with their economies and we saw that price movement at this time... so much volatility? I'm more focussed in technical analisys and to react at what I see at charts, rather than guessing what would happen if Greece is going bankrupt.
In a little while I'm going to post up-to-date gbpusd charts and analyze what I think could happen from now.
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Monday, May 3, 2010
Consistency...
Stick to a plan... I need one of those.
My analysis was accurate enough. We can analize the next 4H chart and see what happened. Price bounced back to test the 1.5440 area with a lot of struggling to the upside, even though almost reached the 1.5500 area just 3 pips shy, then, a big drop to the down side. My target was around 1.5101/15 but price didn't reached so well. As expected, we see a lot of congestion around 1.5200 which was a previous swing low as a certain resistance area, but price did break it and go lower, although not as low as I assume. Price bounced
back with an upward movement from the wednesday low @1.5125 but this is not so far away from my 1.5101/15 estimation.
I've drawn a parallel channel now, which seems to be in place. If we had seen a break of the monday 26th high of 1.5497 (or thursday 15th high of 1.5523), price definitely could go higher, but in its upward movement price found resistance around the 1.5350/90 zone. Because of that, I'm still bearish. My original target of 1.4797 (march 25th low) should be tested if a break of the channel happens to the down side. My immediate target right now is the 1.5024/15 zone, but let's see if the lower line of the channel supports and price bounce to test to upper line again. Price could found some resistance @1.5100, though. Tomorrow we'll see if price drops.
I'm starting to understand a little bit more about this. But, I'm more aware that my "system" is not a real system yet, that's why I'm still aside of the markets. I definitely need a entry strategy, accurate enough to be consistent in this venture. Timing, another annoying variable to the equation...
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My analysis was accurate enough. We can analize the next 4H chart and see what happened. Price bounced back to test the 1.5440 area with a lot of struggling to the upside, even though almost reached the 1.5500 area just 3 pips shy, then, a big drop to the down side. My target was around 1.5101/15 but price didn't reached so well. As expected, we see a lot of congestion around 1.5200 which was a previous swing low as a certain resistance area, but price did break it and go lower, although not as low as I assume. Price bounced
back with an upward movement from the wednesday low @1.5125 but this is not so far away from my 1.5101/15 estimation.
I've drawn a parallel channel now, which seems to be in place. If we had seen a break of the monday 26th high of 1.5497 (or thursday 15th high of 1.5523), price definitely could go higher, but in its upward movement price found resistance around the 1.5350/90 zone. Because of that, I'm still bearish. My original target of 1.4797 (march 25th low) should be tested if a break of the channel happens to the down side. My immediate target right now is the 1.5024/15 zone, but let's see if the lower line of the channel supports and price bounce to test to upper line again. Price could found some resistance @1.5100, though. Tomorrow we'll see if price drops.
I'm starting to understand a little bit more about this. But, I'm more aware that my "system" is not a real system yet, that's why I'm still aside of the markets. I definitely need a entry strategy, accurate enough to be consistent in this venture. Timing, another annoying variable to the equation...
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Saturday, April 24, 2010
Resuming...
So, two weeks have passed and we are in a consolidation phase again. Since my last post, price reached my immediate targets @ 1.5370/82
I was expecting some resistance at 1.5400 due it is a round number but then, Bam! a price gap over the weekend, so I needed to wait and see. Gaps are not so common on forex as in the stock market, as I've read, moreover not that big. I assume that the downward movement occur due stop-loss orders taken by brokers or even a natural market's response to close that gap. Price continued its upward movement with a little resistance @1.5400 and continued higher to 1.5500 without any major hold as I expected. The swing high was @1.5523, just 18pips shy from my next target @1.5541 (1.27 fib ext), then price drop sharply. Another gap in the way suggesting prudence.
I was bullish and expecting that price could reach 1.5626/41 but last swings changed my mind. From april 15th high @1.5523, price retraced to 1.5200 zone (monday 19th low @1.5191) and bounced up to thursday 22nd high @1.5473. Because price couln't break the previous high of 1.5523, more than likely we will see a decline in price. Right now it seems that price is ranging again. I drew a resistance line with the highs as the upper channel limit, but I'm hesitating about the lower limit. From my previous post, the support line seems to still be valid but time would tell. We may see price bouncing between this two limits and a break either way could mean a big movement.
Because I'm bearish, my expectation is that price could test once again the upper limit near 1.5440 and drop to the 1.5101/15 zone as first target with a little struggling at 1.5200, then, due there is not any major support levels, price should test the march 25th low @1.4798 showing some trouble around round numbers 1.5000 1.4900 and 1.4800.
Almost in every post I say this... nothing is for sure. Price could continue to go higher but if we analize the daily chart below, I've mark some elliot wave counts. This is when a conflict between analysis appear. Whislt in the weekly chart a bullish gartley seems to be present, with elliot waves theory, we might be in a major impulsive downward wave three and right now in its wave five. So price should go as low as 1.45s so... what to believe in. It's relatively easy to stablish elliot waves once they have occur, but I'm not sure that should be considered as a reliable way of trading. If price breaks the march 1st low of 1.4781, this minor wave 5 should be completed and price should go in a major corrective three-wave fourth and, if october 13th low is not broken through, price should go as low as 1.40s or lower. This is way too much speculation and cannot be confirmed till it actually happens, so... what to believe?
I could be death wrong in this post, though. Make your own analysis!.
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I was expecting some resistance at 1.5400 due it is a round number but then, Bam! a price gap over the weekend, so I needed to wait and see. Gaps are not so common on forex as in the stock market, as I've read, moreover not that big. I assume that the downward movement occur due stop-loss orders taken by brokers or even a natural market's response to close that gap. Price continued its upward movement with a little resistance @1.5400 and continued higher to 1.5500 without any major hold as I expected. The swing high was @1.5523, just 18pips shy from my next target @1.5541 (1.27 fib ext), then price drop sharply. Another gap in the way suggesting prudence.
I was bullish and expecting that price could reach 1.5626/41 but last swings changed my mind. From april 15th high @1.5523, price retraced to 1.5200 zone (monday 19th low @1.5191) and bounced up to thursday 22nd high @1.5473. Because price couln't break the previous high of 1.5523, more than likely we will see a decline in price. Right now it seems that price is ranging again. I drew a resistance line with the highs as the upper channel limit, but I'm hesitating about the lower limit. From my previous post, the support line seems to still be valid but time would tell. We may see price bouncing between this two limits and a break either way could mean a big movement.
Because I'm bearish, my expectation is that price could test once again the upper limit near 1.5440 and drop to the 1.5101/15 zone as first target with a little struggling at 1.5200, then, due there is not any major support levels, price should test the march 25th low @1.4798 showing some trouble around round numbers 1.5000 1.4900 and 1.4800.
Almost in every post I say this... nothing is for sure. Price could continue to go higher but if we analize the daily chart below, I've mark some elliot wave counts. This is when a conflict between analysis appear. Whislt in the weekly chart a bullish gartley seems to be present, with elliot waves theory, we might be in a major impulsive downward wave three and right now in its wave five. So price should go as low as 1.45s so... what to believe in. It's relatively easy to stablish elliot waves once they have occur, but I'm not sure that should be considered as a reliable way of trading. If price breaks the march 1st low of 1.4781, this minor wave 5 should be completed and price should go in a major corrective three-wave fourth and, if october 13th low is not broken through, price should go as low as 1.40s or lower. This is way too much speculation and cannot be confirmed till it actually happens, so... what to believe?
I could be death wrong in this post, though. Make your own analysis!.
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Friday, April 9, 2010
So... where are we?
I was hesitating about my previous analysis, but it seems that it worked out. Tuesday, wednesday and thursday bars were very bullish with a long wick downwards so price had a difficult time to push price lower. I'm not sure why, but 1.5140 seems to be a strong support. My trend line in the daily chart was broke through with today's bar and with a few hours of trading session remaining, I do not see any possible backwards movement.
In a closer look with a hourly chart, we can see my previous analysis and a few more things around it. With a upward movement in mind, I drew some fib extensions and resistance lines. Even though, things didn't seem to go according to the analysis, I was bullish... price started to behave in a consolidation phase. Price bounced within a range in the intraday chart, but forming that long-wick bars on the daily chart.
With the range defined with those resistance and support lines, a breakout of either way could mean a big movement on price, whether up or down. If price would had broke the support line, probably price could went as low as 1.5000; but the breakout occur to the up side; first with a false breakout, but then all the way with a few closes out the channel. In the short-term analysis, my price target was around 1.5370 (1.27 fib extension) & 1.5382 (previous high), which was reached without a problem.
Did I enter the trade? No! I'm still hesitating about my own analysis. What the hell? I need to be more confident.
Which is the forecast about this cross? If I have learnt something in this life... I can say that you can't give anything for granted. Technically speaking, I don't see any near resistance on the horizon. 1.5400 could be a psychological resistance as it's a round number, then 1.5500. Previous fib retracement levels could mean some resistance, maybe 1.5421 or 1.5619. Applying fib extensions, price could reach 1.5541 (1.27 fib extension from last swing) or between 1.5626 & 1.5641 (some fib-ext of different swings)
If I start to analyze things with Elliot wave theory, all my previous analysis are trash. If we see the daily chart, price might be at the end of a corrective upward wave 4 and heading south to complete the 5-waves impulsive downward movement with a target around 1.43s.
That's something I can't overcome yet. Sometimes I think in a possible scenario with solid foundations, but an indicator or another kind of analysis just tore it down. And I don't want to start talking about multiple time frames analysis with the same problem.
Personal reminder: Keep It Simple Stupid!
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In a closer look with a hourly chart, we can see my previous analysis and a few more things around it. With a upward movement in mind, I drew some fib extensions and resistance lines. Even though, things didn't seem to go according to the analysis, I was bullish... price started to behave in a consolidation phase. Price bounced within a range in the intraday chart, but forming that long-wick bars on the daily chart.
With the range defined with those resistance and support lines, a breakout of either way could mean a big movement on price, whether up or down. If price would had broke the support line, probably price could went as low as 1.5000; but the breakout occur to the up side; first with a false breakout, but then all the way with a few closes out the channel. In the short-term analysis, my price target was around 1.5370 (1.27 fib extension) & 1.5382 (previous high), which was reached without a problem.
Did I enter the trade? No! I'm still hesitating about my own analysis. What the hell? I need to be more confident.
Which is the forecast about this cross? If I have learnt something in this life... I can say that you can't give anything for granted. Technically speaking, I don't see any near resistance on the horizon. 1.5400 could be a psychological resistance as it's a round number, then 1.5500. Previous fib retracement levels could mean some resistance, maybe 1.5421 or 1.5619. Applying fib extensions, price could reach 1.5541 (1.27 fib extension from last swing) or between 1.5626 & 1.5641 (some fib-ext of different swings)
If I start to analyze things with Elliot wave theory, all my previous analysis are trash. If we see the daily chart, price might be at the end of a corrective upward wave 4 and heading south to complete the 5-waves impulsive downward movement with a target around 1.43s.
That's something I can't overcome yet. Sometimes I think in a possible scenario with solid foundations, but an indicator or another kind of analysis just tore it down. And I don't want to start talking about multiple time frames analysis with the same problem.
Personal reminder: Keep It Simple Stupid!
.
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
GBPUSD development
From yestarday post, things haven't change so much. I was a little concern about a retracement in price but we should expect that due the big previous advance in price; maybe people taking profits or traders putting some shorts. By now, almost all the retracement has recover its value and for me, price is leading north.
In the 240 chart, we can see this in more detail. I expect that price continue to go higher and maybe find resistance @1.5300 due it's a round number and also is clearly near a previous high. We may also be troubled @1.5319 but with any major resistance ahead, more than likely price will intent to test march 17th high @1.5382. That price range coincides with last swing 1.272 fib expansion level @1.5370 leaving a narrow target zone.
Nevertheless, price could retract even more. Just one bar I don't think is a lot. Price may go as low as 1.5000 level before leading upwards.
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In the 240 chart, we can see this in more detail. I expect that price continue to go higher and maybe find resistance @1.5300 due it's a round number and also is clearly near a previous high. We may also be troubled @1.5319 but with any major resistance ahead, more than likely price will intent to test march 17th high @1.5382. That price range coincides with last swing 1.272 fib expansion level @1.5370 leaving a narrow target zone.
Not so fast, though. Whether price may break this resistance levels, I'm seeing another trend line to break that could be annoying. If we analize the daily chart, I've drawn this resistance line and today's bar didn't break it. Although we have a long wick or tail in today's bar, which tells me that market is very bullish and probably price continue and break through this.
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Monday, April 5, 2010
GBPUSD outlook
Since my previous analysis, due the pattern I spotted, I was expecting a reverse in price action. In the hourly chart almost every condition to a bullish Gartley pattern was accomplished; in the next graphic you will see the result. I've enclosed in a red rectangle were a long position could be triggered, but probably that could result in a lost. Price did reverse but not for long tearing a part the pattern. A houndred pips down later the actual reverse occur @ 1.4800
The next chart is a 4H where price did retrace when it supposed to. This time with an ABCD pattern and a narrow range where to put the long position (between 1.4819 and 1.4809). That makes me wonder... what the hell? Are price patterns a reliable tool? Not sure. I do know that price itself is a good indicator.
By now price is heading north @1.5300; if triggered @1.4800 that's a 500pips move. In a specific technical point of view, there isn't any resistance level near, till 1.5382 (wed march 17th high) so more than likely, price should reach that, maybe strugle for a while and continue towards.
In a bigger timeframe, reviewing the weekly chart we can spot a bullish Gartley. Whilst mon 1st march low holds, there is a plenty of room upwards. Probable targets are around 1.9250 or even 2.0600, but again, this is speculative and we have to wait a long time to see if this really happens.
Are fibonacci ratios a secure way to trade? Not convinced, maybe with a sum of other factors.
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The next chart is a 4H where price did retrace when it supposed to. This time with an ABCD pattern and a narrow range where to put the long position (between 1.4819 and 1.4809). That makes me wonder... what the hell? Are price patterns a reliable tool? Not sure. I do know that price itself is a good indicator.
By now price is heading north @1.5300; if triggered @1.4800 that's a 500pips move. In a specific technical point of view, there isn't any resistance level near, till 1.5382 (wed march 17th high) so more than likely, price should reach that, maybe strugle for a while and continue towards.
In a bigger timeframe, reviewing the weekly chart we can spot a bullish Gartley. Whilst mon 1st march low holds, there is a plenty of room upwards. Probable targets are around 1.9250 or even 2.0600, but again, this is speculative and we have to wait a long time to see if this really happens.
Are fibonacci ratios a secure way to trade? Not convinced, maybe with a sum of other factors.
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Wednesday, March 24, 2010
gbpusd
Price action is the most important factor. Patterns are helpful too. Indicators are not reliable enough... may help but cannot be trusted.
What are we seeing by now?
What can happen?
What are we seeing by now?
What can happen?
Tuesday, December 8, 2009
GBPUSD - A small bump in the way...
It´s been a while since my last post... So, what happened with my last analysis... wasn´t accurate enough. With a retracement in mind, I entered short in the gbpusd in oct 19th. You may remember that I was expecting a retracement in price and then go long, but I tempted my luck and try to get advantage of this movement too. Let´s analyze the next chart...
Price reach 1.6398 and started to decline. Two bars later, I entered short @ 1.6340 and established my stop @ 1.6416
My stop was around 15 pips above the previous high (1.64 aprox). That way I was giving enough space to price reaction and not get stopped out to soon but not too far to get really hurt. Price nicely behave as predicted and started to go down so my possible targets were between the fib retracement levels. More that likely price should retract at least 1.6134, 1.6053 or 1.5971, I thought... Then price eventually retract to the first fib level of 78.6% @ 1.6250 (price reached 1.6241) and go further upwards.
I was kicked out a few hours later with a 78 pips lost. That´s not too bad due my money management. Always remember to have strict money management rules because you want to be there tomorrow.
I´m going to post soon what I think is happening lately...
Price reach 1.6398 and started to decline. Two bars later, I entered short @ 1.6340 and established my stop @ 1.6416
My stop was around 15 pips above the previous high (1.64 aprox). That way I was giving enough space to price reaction and not get stopped out to soon but not too far to get really hurt. Price nicely behave as predicted and started to go down so my possible targets were between the fib retracement levels. More that likely price should retract at least 1.6134, 1.6053 or 1.5971, I thought... Then price eventually retract to the first fib level of 78.6% @ 1.6250 (price reached 1.6241) and go further upwards.
I was kicked out a few hours later with a 78 pips lost. That´s not too bad due my money management. Always remember to have strict money management rules because you want to be there tomorrow.
I´m going to post soon what I think is happening lately...
Thursday, October 15, 2009
I didn´t expect that!
I really didn´t expect that big movement this days. Some charts below...
With price around 1.6335 right now, more than likely, could retract to 1.6098, 1.6023 or even 1.5948.
Time will tell...
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We can see in the daily chart price, from wednesday sep 30th to tuesday oct 6th, has some uncertainty behavior... I couldn´t figure out how price could react on the following days. It took a few days but my target of 1.5758 was reached and even breaked through with a low of 1.5707 on monday oct 12th.
Then... what the hell?
Price skyrocketed to the roof... with a approximate 600 pips up in just three days. I didn´t expect that , but the only thing that I can do now is analyze what could happen in the future.
Price break through the wave 1 low (1.6112 on tuesday sep 1st) of the three wave correction. That´s why we can know be certain of that correction was only a three wave corrective pattern. Wave four never can overlap wave two so this uptrend is a new upward impulse action. We may be entering at a wave three of a major wave.
We can expect that price could go up further and beyond 1.7040 (wednesday aug 5th high) . But experience tell us that nothing is for sure in this damn life. With this 600pips in an unexpected rally, we will see a technical pullback. With that in mind, a long opportunity would be shining in the next few days. I want to take it.
With price around 1.6335 right now, more than likely, could retract to 1.6098, 1.6023 or even 1.5948.
Time will tell...
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Saturday, October 3, 2009
gbpusd
On monday 28th price almost reached my target at 1.5758. Price reached 1.5770 as low that day, only 12 pips away from my target. I´m not discarting that target yet, because a few things around my head. This is what we got...
In my post on sunday night (sep 20th), price was forming a bulish candle but on monday 21st, at the close, we had a doji formed that confirmed a pullback in the days ahead. I wrote that price could reach even 1.6422 and amazingly price closed at 1.6424 forming a doji as we can see in the 4H chart posted below. That´s only two pips away from my expectations. Then, price continue to go lower and lower...
I have labeled on the 4H chart some elliot wave counts, are we at the end of a five wave? don´t know. Wave five should go lower than wave three so that´s why I´m not discarding the 1.5758 target. But we have stochastics crossover and pointing up, so... what is it suppose to mean?
Why I didn´t post anything in this twelve past days... I was going to but I wanted to see what the market was doing, specially yesterday, nfp friday. I just wanted to see what effect could cause in my previous analysis, but guess what... it seems to me that nothing at all. Fundamental vs technical... I think that we have a winner.
Sum up... reviewing the daily chart, the question would be, are we at the end of a three-legs corrective pattern? or we are going to see a five wave downtrend pattern. Time will tell...
If you are wondering if I entered... no, I did not.
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I have labeled on the 4H chart some elliot wave counts, are we at the end of a five wave? don´t know. Wave five should go lower than wave three so that´s why I´m not discarding the 1.5758 target. But we have stochastics crossover and pointing up, so... what is it suppose to mean?
Why I didn´t post anything in this twelve past days... I was going to but I wanted to see what the market was doing, specially yesterday, nfp friday. I just wanted to see what effect could cause in my previous analysis, but guess what... it seems to me that nothing at all. Fundamental vs technical... I think that we have a winner.
Sum up... reviewing the daily chart, the question would be, are we at the end of a three-legs corrective pattern? or we are going to see a five wave downtrend pattern. Time will tell...
If you are wondering if I entered... no, I did not.
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Sunday, September 20, 2009
So, what happened...
On wed16, we had a doji and that freak me out. Stochastics were pointing down so that was a little contradictory. By that day I was considering to go short because we had the dma crossover, but with that doji there, I needed to wait to see what the market was doing. That could mean a long oportunity but, as we saw, my first analysis could give be an outstanding 400 pips if I have entered short on 1.6650 to 1.6250
Right now, on sunday night, a bullish candle is forming. That could mean that due the several bearish bars through the week, maybe traders around the world are closing their positions. We can see, maybe, a recovery in price that could reach 1.6340 or even 1.6380 or 1.6422. I´m not sure but time will tell.
From my initial analysis, price has to go down till 1.5758 at least.
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