Daily
4H
.
Showing posts with label audusd. Show all posts
Showing posts with label audusd. Show all posts
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Sunday, October 24, 2010
Aussie update
Weekly
I have relabeled the elliot count to something more pleasant to see. Is it reliable? No, it is not.
Watching merely price action, last bar change bias in the audusd, making a lower high and a lower low so further decline could happen next. Stoch has made a bearish crossover but is still in overbought zone. Even though the doji has established a 1.0002 high, further advance can happen as discussed in previous posts. We have to consider though last bar is still bullish in nature so a break of its range would give a better understanding of future price action.
Daily
As said before in the last post, really interesting week to see the market. Critical times to learn. I'm almost sure that not just one got chopped out and eaten up by the market last week. In this chart we can see that the break of the regression channel to the down side did occur, forming a wide bearish candle, and then is when became interesting. Price bounced back defining a new support zone and consolidate for the following days. This consolidation, formed by long bars almost shaping a symmetrical triangle, is called Shark32. This is not a perfect Shark32 but close. Next week we will see which direction the market choose but with the prevalent uptrend, more than likely, a continuation would follow. The interesting thing here is that price has formed a wide range with a couple of inside bars so the best plan to follow would be wait till price gives us more clues. Price might trade inside the range for a while or break in either direction. False break outs are always a possibility. Next week also is worth to watch.
.
I have relabeled the elliot count to something more pleasant to see. Is it reliable? No, it is not.
Watching merely price action, last bar change bias in the audusd, making a lower high and a lower low so further decline could happen next. Stoch has made a bearish crossover but is still in overbought zone. Even though the doji has established a 1.0002 high, further advance can happen as discussed in previous posts. We have to consider though last bar is still bullish in nature so a break of its range would give a better understanding of future price action.
Daily
As said before in the last post, really interesting week to see the market. Critical times to learn. I'm almost sure that not just one got chopped out and eaten up by the market last week. In this chart we can see that the break of the regression channel to the down side did occur, forming a wide bearish candle, and then is when became interesting. Price bounced back defining a new support zone and consolidate for the following days. This consolidation, formed by long bars almost shaping a symmetrical triangle, is called Shark32. This is not a perfect Shark32 but close. Next week we will see which direction the market choose but with the prevalent uptrend, more than likely, a continuation would follow. The interesting thing here is that price has formed a wide range with a couple of inside bars so the best plan to follow would be wait till price gives us more clues. Price might trade inside the range for a while or break in either direction. False break outs are always a possibility. Next week also is worth to watch.
.
Sunday, October 17, 2010
audusd
Weekly
Doji formed at resistance level. That doesn't mean the reversal will certainly follow; it is an indecision candle instead. Thus we should be aware that price is always right and a continuation to the upside could happen.
In the weekly chart I've plotted some elliot counts, and a possible "narrow" zone to complete a 5 wave impulse movement. E-wave theory is not as reliable as I would like it to be. Only when previous highs or lows are taken out, the movement is confirmed, so... not a good "forecasting" tool. The last leg should develop also in a 5wave impulse movement. The current count is completely speculative. With the information we have, a reversal could happen. Stochastics is overbought but hasn't yet provide a bearish crossover in this timeframe.
Daily
In the daily, price steadily climb and reach the expected target zone of 0.99926/50 and actually price indeed poke the 1.0000 round number. Friday's close had a high of 1.0002 and formed a spinning top, so... really interesting time to see what happen next week. I've updated the regression channel in the chart below. A brake to the downside of the channel would mean the start of the correction. Stochastics is deeply overbought but as the last bar in the chart, a bearish crossover is in place. There is still the MACD divergence. Eventhough, a trade against the trend would be a bold move, a smarter action would be enter long at a pullback.
Price has broken previous structure so the last major resistance to break is the 1.0000; if price closes above it, I don't see any reason for a slowdown in the uptrend or even a decline. Next week will be critical.
.
Doji formed at resistance level. That doesn't mean the reversal will certainly follow; it is an indecision candle instead. Thus we should be aware that price is always right and a continuation to the upside could happen.
In the weekly chart I've plotted some elliot counts, and a possible "narrow" zone to complete a 5 wave impulse movement. E-wave theory is not as reliable as I would like it to be. Only when previous highs or lows are taken out, the movement is confirmed, so... not a good "forecasting" tool. The last leg should develop also in a 5wave impulse movement. The current count is completely speculative. With the information we have, a reversal could happen. Stochastics is overbought but hasn't yet provide a bearish crossover in this timeframe.
Daily
In the daily, price steadily climb and reach the expected target zone of 0.99926/50 and actually price indeed poke the 1.0000 round number. Friday's close had a high of 1.0002 and formed a spinning top, so... really interesting time to see what happen next week. I've updated the regression channel in the chart below. A brake to the downside of the channel would mean the start of the correction. Stochastics is deeply overbought but as the last bar in the chart, a bearish crossover is in place. There is still the MACD divergence. Eventhough, a trade against the trend would be a bold move, a smarter action would be enter long at a pullback.
Price has broken previous structure so the last major resistance to break is the 1.0000; if price closes above it, I don't see any reason for a slowdown in the uptrend or even a decline. Next week will be critical.
.
Thursday, October 7, 2010
Aussie
Reviewing my previous post, that missed entry will be remembered. I should not commit previous mistakes and this blog is going to help me with this. By now the aussie is far away in the sky and I don't see a strong reason for a reversal. Right now is just testing its previous high, which is the 2008 high at 0.9849, which coincide to be the high of all times, or at least within twenty years of data that I have.
That high has been broken in today's trading bar, reaching 0.9917. That tells me basically two things... price will go higher but has some resistances to overcome first. Second, a retracement is more than likely to occur soon. If price makes a breakout of its previous high, the next obvious resistance would be the 1.000 which is relatively close to price action. The retracement should occur eventually and a possible retest of its previous resistance zone, transformed now in support, around 0.9400 (0.9380/0.9420). A trade could be trigger here with a first target at 1.000 and a second target just as far as price wants to go through a trailing stop. Right now stochastics is overbought and the possible retracement could follow.
The daily presents more data to analyze. The trend is clearly up so why I would like to trade against it? A correct move would be wait for a retracement and go long with the flow. Today's bar is not closed yet but is showing a reversal candle. I've drawn an upward trend channel which has broken to the upside; I also have drawn a regression channel which is still valid. A break to the downside would mean the start of the retracement and a possible test of the lower line of the channel which coincides with a previous resistance zone. We can see there tuesday's candle with a long lower shadow, which seemed to me by that day, a possible break but resulted in a false break out. Price is really close to my extensions between 0.9926/50 where I was expecting to see the retracement, but because the regression channel is holding, that zone might be reached. Because 1.000 is really close, I would not be surprised if price spikes that high before the decline. Stochastics is overbought and there's divergence on MACD.
.
That high has been broken in today's trading bar, reaching 0.9917. That tells me basically two things... price will go higher but has some resistances to overcome first. Second, a retracement is more than likely to occur soon. If price makes a breakout of its previous high, the next obvious resistance would be the 1.000 which is relatively close to price action. The retracement should occur eventually and a possible retest of its previous resistance zone, transformed now in support, around 0.9400 (0.9380/0.9420). A trade could be trigger here with a first target at 1.000 and a second target just as far as price wants to go through a trailing stop. Right now stochastics is overbought and the possible retracement could follow.
The daily presents more data to analyze. The trend is clearly up so why I would like to trade against it? A correct move would be wait for a retracement and go long with the flow. Today's bar is not closed yet but is showing a reversal candle. I've drawn an upward trend channel which has broken to the upside; I also have drawn a regression channel which is still valid. A break to the downside would mean the start of the retracement and a possible test of the lower line of the channel which coincides with a previous resistance zone. We can see there tuesday's candle with a long lower shadow, which seemed to me by that day, a possible break but resulted in a false break out. Price is really close to my extensions between 0.9926/50 where I was expecting to see the retracement, but because the regression channel is holding, that zone might be reached. Because 1.000 is really close, I would not be surprised if price spikes that high before the decline. Stochastics is overbought and there's divergence on MACD.
.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
AUDUSD update
Sorry for the delay in posting an update. I was out of my country for almost a week and didn't be able to post anything.
Let's review the AUDUSD. We had a high of 0.7317 on monday 13th and we see a divergence on MACD that was looking good. Four trading days pass and we see a huge retracement of price, reaching 0.6972 as low (closing price) of retracement. I don't like to make unreal pips counts and discourage people that do this, but that's an incredible change of 345 pips.
That make me realize that divergence on MACD works!
Now we are in a consolidation phase, I think. Price went up again till 0.7236 and then retraced again generating a indecision bar on tuesday. Stochastics is pointing down but to me it seems that is still in an uptrend, so I'm not discarding my targets of 0.7576/91
Time will tell.
An alternative scenario would be a retracement to 0.6800 zone but (again... to me!) it's not probable. Price has tested a previous support zone around 0.7000 and couln't go through, so the uptrend is more than likely to happen.
Tomorrow I will post a GBPUSD review and right now, the USDJPY seems so nice to me to enter long, but I'm going to wait. Maybe tomorrow I'll post an analysis of this chart.
Let's review the AUDUSD. We had a high of 0.7317 on monday 13th and we see a divergence on MACD that was looking good. Four trading days pass and we see a huge retracement of price, reaching 0.6972 as low (closing price) of retracement. I don't like to make unreal pips counts and discourage people that do this, but that's an incredible change of 345 pips.
That make me realize that divergence on MACD works!
Now we are in a consolidation phase, I think. Price went up again till 0.7236 and then retraced again generating a indecision bar on tuesday. Stochastics is pointing down but to me it seems that is still in an uptrend, so I'm not discarding my targets of 0.7576/91
Time will tell.
An alternative scenario would be a retracement to 0.6800 zone but (again... to me!) it's not probable. Price has tested a previous support zone around 0.7000 and couln't go through, so the uptrend is more than likely to happen.
Tomorrow I will post a GBPUSD review and right now, the USDJPY seems so nice to me to enter long, but I'm going to wait. Maybe tomorrow I'll post an analysis of this chart.
Tuesday, April 14, 2009
AUDUSD review
So... We had a doji formed on last friday. We supposed that price would retrace because divergence on MACD. Contrary to thought, price went up almost 120 pips and MACD went lower.
Still in divergence, price reached 0.7317 on monday 13th and retract as anticipated on tuesday 14th almost same value. Including the beginning of wednesday trading day, price retraced almost 145 pips. Is this retracement a mid/long term condition? I don't know.
To me it seems that AUDUSD is in an uptrend, so this retracement could be just a extreme short term condition just to continue to a new high. My possible target is about 0.7576/91. Once again for the record, I'm not in this trade.
A review of friday's doji. A doji is a strong signal of change. That could be understood as a reversal signal, but, it has to be on the top or bottom of a trend. In this particular case, the doji was lower than the most closer high. That should be enough to discredit this doji. When divergence on MACD appear, is just matter of time that price is going to follow.
Tomorrow I'll post a GBPUSD update.
Still in divergence, price reached 0.7317 on monday 13th and retract as anticipated on tuesday 14th almost same value. Including the beginning of wednesday trading day, price retraced almost 145 pips. Is this retracement a mid/long term condition? I don't know.
To me it seems that AUDUSD is in an uptrend, so this retracement could be just a extreme short term condition just to continue to a new high. My possible target is about 0.7576/91. Once again for the record, I'm not in this trade.
A review of friday's doji. A doji is a strong signal of change. That could be understood as a reversal signal, but, it has to be on the top or bottom of a trend. In this particular case, the doji was lower than the most closer high. That should be enough to discredit this doji. When divergence on MACD appear, is just matter of time that price is going to follow.
Tomorrow I'll post a GBPUSD update.
Monday, April 13, 2009
Trust your own analysis
As you can see from this image, that was a high probability and low risk trade. Right now the market has formed a doji in last friday. I'm not really sure, I think that this day was a vacation day or something; monday we'll see how the market develops.
I don't enter this trade because my internet connection problem, also, as you may know, I lost confidence in my analysis so I was just observing how the market was developing in time and it seems that my analysis was accurate enough. Knowing the way I am, probably if I enter this trade in that day, that could ended as a lost. Where to put stops are so important too.
A small comment about timeframe and stops:
I'm not really sure how to manage a trade. It seems (to me) that if you trade in a large timeframe stoplimits are far away from my comfort zone. By example, in daily charts (like posted), using only pattern to estimate a limit, the position should be 140 pips aprox. in the trade that I missed. Usually I used to define a fixed stop of 30 pips... maybe too short I could say now. As counterview, small timeframes using same pattern analysis, limitstops are closer to market action, but as I told before in previous post, be aware about scalping and too small timeframes... just too much noise.
By now, AUDUSD looks like is in an uptrend... but we have divergence in MACD. That's strong enough to tell me that it's going to retrace... not sure where. In future posts I'm going to follow these two charts from now, and maybe if it's possible, another pair or two. Actually I'm seeing 10 pairs now.
I tried to post this entry yesterday but I couln't. Tomorrow I will try to post any update about these two pairs.
I don't enter this trade because my internet connection problem, also, as you may know, I lost confidence in my analysis so I was just observing how the market was developing in time and it seems that my analysis was accurate enough. Knowing the way I am, probably if I enter this trade in that day, that could ended as a lost. Where to put stops are so important too.
A small comment about timeframe and stops:
I'm not really sure how to manage a trade. It seems (to me) that if you trade in a large timeframe stoplimits are far away from my comfort zone. By example, in daily charts (like posted), using only pattern to estimate a limit, the position should be 140 pips aprox. in the trade that I missed. Usually I used to define a fixed stop of 30 pips... maybe too short I could say now. As counterview, small timeframes using same pattern analysis, limitstops are closer to market action, but as I told before in previous post, be aware about scalping and too small timeframes... just too much noise.
By now, AUDUSD looks like is in an uptrend... but we have divergence in MACD. That's strong enough to tell me that it's going to retrace... not sure where. In future posts I'm going to follow these two charts from now, and maybe if it's possible, another pair or two. Actually I'm seeing 10 pairs now.
I tried to post this entry yesterday but I couln't. Tomorrow I will try to post any update about these two pairs.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)