Last bar in the chart shows an outside bar which also is a bearish engulfing candle. For me this candle means a possible continuation to the downside aligning price action to the longterm downtrend. The last few swings showed similar behaviors with a steep decline every time. The other scenario would be this is a possible retracement from the current midterm uptrend. If price breaks the low of this candle, further decline could occur.
Daily
With the same regression channel in place from my last post, price has formed an inside bar. Considering a break of the high or the low of the mother candle as a sign of further direction, price broke the low and also the regression channel, suggesting further decline in price. What is really interesting of this chart right now is where price is sitting at the moment. Resistance became support and price has found trouble to pass through the previous R/S zone. The two possible scenarios: first, again comparing previous swings, price just drop sharply in similar circumstances so further decline could happen because we are still in a longterm downtrend. The second scenario for me as price has found support, more than likely, a bounce up is going to happen next. The 120sma is also providing some support.
Therefore, we may see a 2B formation or a continuation but again price action must be considered. The high and the low of the last bar of the chart will provide clues of future price direction.
4H
If we were analyzing only this timeframe, I would be more bullish than bearish. In the last swings, price has been making higher highs and higher lows suggesting that we are currently in an uptrend. Again, just looking at this chart, right now price might be presenting a long setup. Price has encountered support in a former resistance zone and has stalled, forming a bullish candle that just touched the 200sma and bounced up. This zone also coincide with the 0.382 fib ret. The last bar of the chart has made a shy higher high and a higher low from the previous one, and seems that the bears just couldn't push lower, resulting in a really small range, or in Wickoff terms, really small spread. If price do bounce up from the support zone, at least should reach the 1.3686 but if fails, 1.3265 would be the next possible target towards the south.
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