Weekly
Price is clearly still in downtrend. Last bar though showed a big drop. Probably we will see a retest of the down trend line of the channel in the next two bars ahead. Due the steep decline, price might stall or even bounce back to retest the up line of the channel before the continuation down.
Daily
In the daily chart we can see that price has been trading within a range. The break of the range wasn't very convincing to me due price almost returned inside, ending as a bullish candle. I decided to wait and see the next day and almost the same scenario repeated again, forming a bearish candle instead. With last's thursday close though price finally broke the support and by friday found enough momentum to push even lower. Price has stalled at the .786 fib ret from last swing. I don't think this level can hold price so, more than likely, a retest of the 1.3658 low "should" occur.
4H
In the chart below I have included the data since my last post. There are the elliot wave counts and why this would be invalid now. Price was unable to make a wave 5 within the time expected. Due the alternation law, I assume w4 would be an irregular wave but a w5 never happened.
A w5 not necessarily needs to make a higher high than w4 but should be at least close to it. Here, not even close. Price broke the w4 low for a few pips and then entered into a trading range, thus all hope for a five wave elliot pattern was vanished. Once price broke the range to the downside, and below w1 high, also confirmed that the e-wave count wasn't valid anymore.
Analyzing more recent data, in the chart below, I have circled some areas of interest around the 200sma and 120sma. By now, price has stalled around a fib cluster, so a retracement could occur next week. I'm now concentrating my efforts in analyzing price action so it hasn't much sense to forecast something without watch realtime development. Due price has dropped quite fast, a retrace should be expected, but as the last candle in the chart, there are no clues suggesting it. Price has punched through the fib cluster with no or little hesitation. Watching how price reacts to the high or low of the last bar could give some clues about next price movement. Even though I won't be surprised if next week starts with a big gap up.
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