In my last post I expected a decline in price once the 1.3265 level was broken. That never happened. Instead, price continued slowly upwards.
Weekly
We can see price has been climbing since its last low. In the chart below there are two interesting bars to analyze. Those candles just formed at the trend line (Daily chart) but were bullish in nature with the close above the midpoint of each bar and presented long wicks to the downside. Once the high was taken out, further rise in price should be expected and indeed occur. Three bars later we can see each of those have made higher highs and higher lows. We cannot consider the last bar due it's not finish and actually is going to be interesting to see what happens with this one.
Daily
We are not anymore, by far, in the downtrend channel. I was expecting a retest of the sep8th low, but with the break of the channel we saw price struggling within a 228 pips range. While price was in the range, it didn't show any attempt to test the low at 1.3265, instead, price broke the high of the range and continued higher and higher. I was expecting to see resistance at the 120sma but didn't happen. I've drawn a regression channel that is holding. We are approaching another resistance zone between 1.3924/1.3875 from previous highs, also the 200sma. A break from this zone, with several closes above it, could mean further advance to the upside, while a break of the regression channel could mean a resume of the major downtrend.
4H
Once again, here I have to say that my analysis was wrong. I expected a break of the 1.3265 low and at least a decline in price to 1.3200. That break never happened. I was considering enter the short at 1.3400 but with price steadily climbing, I wasn't sure so I didn't. Here I would like to stress some issues that I didn't consider. Price had climbed above the 200sma and 120sma. The 120sma provided support a few times before. I considered the cluster 1.3457/81 as resistance and with the 1.3500 above, price respected it, but not for long. What I found interesting is that an ascending triangle started to form and the break to the upside followed.
.
