Hello!
It seems that tuesday indecision bar just was a fake reversal signal and price went up a little bit. The next resistance level could be 1.5200 as round number but I don't see anything that could stop this uptrend, giving us the possibility to reach my projection target around 1.5350
Now we have an overbought stochastics and still divergence on MACD. Price could retract but I'm positive about May 11th as reversal day. A trade trigger could be a crossover on stochastics.
Tomorrow I'll post an update about AUDUSD that seems is working like a clock. The USDCAD doesn't behave as expected, fortunately I didn't enter the trade but sooner or later price is going to go up, maybe tomorrow.
Greetings!
Let's see... Price is now in a bullish trend. Remember that doji on april 10th?, price went up and reached the 1.272 fibonacci extension from initial swing and also a round number as resistance (1.5000). Then we realized MACD divergence and price retraced almost 600 pips to 1.4400 aprox. acting as support. Then a few bars of indecision to finally continue to a new high 1.5159 (tuesday, may 5th high -today-) but it seems that this is a incecision day as well, so what could happen next?
That's a good question. Stochastic is still showing a bullish trend and price seems to react in a trend channel, so price targets could be between 1.5325/1.5430 and more than likely 1.5352 Today's bar, as a indecision candlestick, make me wonder if price will retrace from now... I'm not sure, Do we have still divergence on MACD? It seems that we have. As counterpart, stochastic is not overbought, yet, so we have room a bit more to advance. My time bands are telling me that a change could happen on May 11th also time extensions, and that coincide with the trend channel. Stochastics on a weekly chart are still pointing up so price should upscale a little more to targets, then retrace.
The alternate scenario would be a downtrend starting tomorrow (wednesday, may 6th)... maybe a Gann pullback?
Another interesting pair right now, USDCAD seems so nice to go long... should I jump in? I hope not regret any decision
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Changing subjects. Uncertainty in my life... What should I do? There is a song that says... as more people I know, The most I love my dog... Is there still hope? Sadly I'm arriving to a dead end. There are questions that I don't have an answer for... Why you get up in the mornings? What is your motivation? Why to continue?
This post is only a reminder. Yesterday, May 1st, was the aniversary of my first closed position which resulted as a winner trade.
If you read a few of my first blog entries, you may also now that I started this with 600usd as initial capital, and that first winning position was for 102usd (204 pips at 0.50usd per pip)
That's when this thing hooked me.
Afternoon I'll try to post some reviews about those pairs posted in here and a late analysis of GBPUSD that I have abandon for a while.
Try to have a nice weekend! I have to try as well
Two days ago I was almost entering a long trade in USDJPY but I decided to wait. Bad decision. As you can analyze in the next chart, all the confluences gave a green light to enter the trade, but hesitation is something that I have to overcome.
Tuesday candlebar was a confirmation of a new uptrend coming,also we have a oversold stochastics crossover and pointing up. Wednesday and thursday just confirm my initial thought and regrets are carving my brain.
Again it's not healthy to count imaginary pips, won or lost, but in this trade that could result on a 224 pips aprox. winning position.
Now, for me, the target to this uptrend could be the previous resistance level that coincide with a strong, big, round number 100.00; for me doesn't make any sense to enter the trade now... it's too late.
We have to wait till market gives more clues about what could happen next. Price could reach 100.00 but nothing is for sure in this life, I'd say. The alternate scenario could be a downtrend starting on friday, that could result in a new low beyond 96.00, even 94 or 93.
A conclusion of this missed trade, it seems that I'm starting to undertand this thing... one step at a time.
Sorry for the delay in posting an update. I was out of my country for almost a week and didn't be able to post anything.
Let's review the AUDUSD. We had a high of 0.7317 on monday 13th and we see a divergence on MACD that was looking good. Four trading days pass and we see a huge retracement of price, reaching 0.6972 as low (closing price) of retracement. I don't like to make unreal pips counts and discourage people that do this, but that's an incredible change of 345 pips.
That make me realize that divergence on MACD works!
Now we are in a consolidation phase, I think. Price went up again till 0.7236 and then retraced again generating a indecision bar on tuesday. Stochastics is pointing down but to me it seems that is still in an uptrend, so I'm not discarding my targets of 0.7576/91
Time will tell.
An alternative scenario would be a retracement to 0.6800 zone but (again... to me!) it's not probable. Price has tested a previous support zone around 0.7000 and couln't go through, so the uptrend is more than likely to happen.
Tomorrow I will post a GBPUSD review and right now, the USDJPY seems so nice to me to enter long, but I'm going to wait. Maybe tomorrow I'll post an analysis of this chart.
