Patterns... in conjunction with indicators and even fib retracements are speculation.
Nevertheless, trading depends on it. I mean, every decision is speculative. So, what is really important then? I'm not sure yet but definitely I could say money management and capital exposure.
I have read many times, put the odds in your favor. If a trade doesn't work, it doesn't matter when you have a correct money management procedures. By example, if you risk 3% of equity, you need a winner trade of 3.1% to recover it; but if you risk 50% and lose it you will have to make 100%.
Putting that in numbers, if your start balance is 1000 and you are risking 3% and lose one trade, your balance would be 970. To recover that 3% (30USD) you need to make 3.1% of 970 which means 970 x 103.1% = 1000.07 If you risk 50% and lose, with the same start balance of 1000, you would have 500 and to recover that 50% drawdown, you need to make 100% (500 x 200% = 1000) which is very difficult.
I've read a lot of publications, web sites, some books, etc... I could say a little too much, and still I can't find anything really valuable. I'm not saying that I've lost my time because I have not. I've learnt a lot by my own but is painfully slow.
Backtesting, papertrading, etc... gives an edge over time, but still it's not the same with hard earned money in the line. I haven't entered any trade since the last lost of 78 pips, but I'm testing a few strategies.
I'm aware that I need to find a mechanical trading system that actually works. In the psychological aspect of trading, when a valid trading system is set, there is nothing to do about it. There will be some losers and a few winners... this is part of the game, but when a system is applied, you know everything in advance... how much you are going to lose if price runs against you or how much you make if a target is reached, so there is no emotion related to it. I think finally I got that part.
That's it... I need a system. Later I'm going to post an outlook on gbpusd.
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