Hi to everyone in the world!
Due the title of this post you might be guessing really good news about me... well, not entirely true but close.
How much I would love to say that this milestone is about being completely profitable in the markets and dedicate full time. I'm not saying that but something alike, though. From now on, I'm diving in the markets. I'm going to full time dedicate time to learn and practice in a demo account to test a few strategies that are around my head.
If this took me a lot of time, well, finally it's happening and I'm glad just to have the opportunity to do what I like to do.
Few final thoughts... I'm aware that everything could go wrong but there are worst things in life to be afraid of. I really believe that a solid strategy is definitely necesary but it is not the only thing. Psychology I think is more relevant in the long run. I might be a little optimistic, but I think in this past two years that's what I've been developing from this rollercoaster.
I've read on the internet that someone has found the holy grail!!! And it sounds true to me. It's between your two ears!!! So not everybody knows how it works but everyone has a chance to give it a try!!!
That's the important thing. It doesn't matter how good or bad a strategy is, instead of maintain the discipline straight, and the anxiety aside. I'm done trying to find the ultimate strategy or system. I'm tired of reading hundred of emails from people I don't even know, trying to sell me things that probably doesn't work. I'm not saying that everything is trash because from a few free videos I gather a good few guidelines to develop my own system.
A bright new start ahead. Let's see how we arrive to dusk.
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Sunday, August 22, 2010
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
What could happen from now on
So we have had a lot of volatility. Actually I was swearing at myself because I have my platform with 6 pairs and in every single of them an analisys with fibs, trend lines, etc. And almost everyone seems have worked in this past month an a half.
USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDCAD and of course GBPUSD and its high correlated mate EURUSD. Those are the pairs that I follow. I could post an update from all of those but in my current situation I don't see it possible.
Returning to our main analisys, GBPUSD. Below is the weekly chart. To have a bigger picture of the analisys, and due my lack of time to update the blog, this timeframe is adecuated.
I'm not really convinced of patterns but I've read about people that are very good at it. A few months ago I assumed that we had a bullish Gartley but price continues to go lower and lower. Remembering some elliot theory, we only have either, an impulsive (5legs) or a corrective waves (3legs). If we consider this, and if we assume that a downward five-wave impulsive movement is completed, then we must expect an upward corrective three-wave movement. Bad news for the pound due this could mean that price should go a little high right now, but then a sharp decline could happen, to test the previous lows and even break them.
Next is the daily.
Once again, I've labeled some minor e-waves. I know, I know... there is a mistake, but market analisys is not a exact science. One level that I would like to remark is the 1.4478/73 obtained from the 1.414 fib extension from last swing, and 1.0 fib projection from wave-1. Price crashed just in between @1.4475
Next is the 240 chart
Here I didn't post any note due is just to view what price have done since my last analisys. I leave that channel and even a trend line, which seems that acted like a resistance level later (support became resistance). By now, those lines are not valid. I shrank a little bit the chart to include all price movement till today. We can see a 3-wave upward movement, though. Does this mean that price should retrace?
Next post will be an update for my forecast, although I don't like that word. There's not such thing!
.
USDCHF, USDJPY, AUDUSD, USDCAD and of course GBPUSD and its high correlated mate EURUSD. Those are the pairs that I follow. I could post an update from all of those but in my current situation I don't see it possible.
Returning to our main analisys, GBPUSD. Below is the weekly chart. To have a bigger picture of the analisys, and due my lack of time to update the blog, this timeframe is adecuated.
I'm not really convinced of patterns but I've read about people that are very good at it. A few months ago I assumed that we had a bullish Gartley but price continues to go lower and lower. Remembering some elliot theory, we only have either, an impulsive (5legs) or a corrective waves (3legs). If we consider this, and if we assume that a downward five-wave impulsive movement is completed, then we must expect an upward corrective three-wave movement. Bad news for the pound due this could mean that price should go a little high right now, but then a sharp decline could happen, to test the previous lows and even break them.
Next is the daily.
Once again, I've labeled some minor e-waves. I know, I know... there is a mistake, but market analisys is not a exact science. One level that I would like to remark is the 1.4478/73 obtained from the 1.414 fib extension from last swing, and 1.0 fib projection from wave-1. Price crashed just in between @1.4475
Next is the 240 chart
Here I didn't post any note due is just to view what price have done since my last analisys. I leave that channel and even a trend line, which seems that acted like a resistance level later (support became resistance). By now, those lines are not valid. I shrank a little bit the chart to include all price movement till today. We can see a 3-wave upward movement, though. Does this mean that price should retrace?
Next post will be an update for my forecast, although I don't like that word. There's not such thing!
.
Late gbpusd update from march7th
Greetings!
I have to apoligize about not updating my blog. Between two jobs and an occasional consultant work as CNC programmer, not much time to do what I really want to do.
Past march 7th I had the charts labeled to upload but, one thing and another, I couldn't. My previous analisys worked really well. Below are those charts that I couldn't post.
In the daily we can see that a wave 5 had completed at that time, nevertheless, price went lower later. I suggested as next possible target the 1.4337 level which amazingly was reached. More on that later.
Next is the 240 chart. We can see there that my analisys was valuable and beyond that, accurated enough.
You may be wondering why to post out-of-date charts. May have no sense to you, but it has to me. The main idea of this blog is to keep a record of my thoughts and progress at this, so...
Around the world news move the markets. I'm not a fundamental analyst, I have to agree with some principles, though. Is it coincidence that Europe is struggling with their economies and we saw that price movement at this time... so much volatility? I'm more focussed in technical analisys and to react at what I see at charts, rather than guessing what would happen if Greece is going bankrupt.
In a little while I'm going to post up-to-date gbpusd charts and analyze what I think could happen from now.
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Monday, May 3, 2010
Consistency...
Stick to a plan... I need one of those.
My analysis was accurate enough. We can analize the next 4H chart and see what happened. Price bounced back to test the 1.5440 area with a lot of struggling to the upside, even though almost reached the 1.5500 area just 3 pips shy, then, a big drop to the down side. My target was around 1.5101/15 but price didn't reached so well. As expected, we see a lot of congestion around 1.5200 which was a previous swing low as a certain resistance area, but price did break it and go lower, although not as low as I assume. Price bounced
back with an upward movement from the wednesday low @1.5125 but this is not so far away from my 1.5101/15 estimation.
I've drawn a parallel channel now, which seems to be in place. If we had seen a break of the monday 26th high of 1.5497 (or thursday 15th high of 1.5523), price definitely could go higher, but in its upward movement price found resistance around the 1.5350/90 zone. Because of that, I'm still bearish. My original target of 1.4797 (march 25th low) should be tested if a break of the channel happens to the down side. My immediate target right now is the 1.5024/15 zone, but let's see if the lower line of the channel supports and price bounce to test to upper line again. Price could found some resistance @1.5100, though. Tomorrow we'll see if price drops.
I'm starting to understand a little bit more about this. But, I'm more aware that my "system" is not a real system yet, that's why I'm still aside of the markets. I definitely need a entry strategy, accurate enough to be consistent in this venture. Timing, another annoying variable to the equation...
.
My analysis was accurate enough. We can analize the next 4H chart and see what happened. Price bounced back to test the 1.5440 area with a lot of struggling to the upside, even though almost reached the 1.5500 area just 3 pips shy, then, a big drop to the down side. My target was around 1.5101/15 but price didn't reached so well. As expected, we see a lot of congestion around 1.5200 which was a previous swing low as a certain resistance area, but price did break it and go lower, although not as low as I assume. Price bounced
back with an upward movement from the wednesday low @1.5125 but this is not so far away from my 1.5101/15 estimation.
I've drawn a parallel channel now, which seems to be in place. If we had seen a break of the monday 26th high of 1.5497 (or thursday 15th high of 1.5523), price definitely could go higher, but in its upward movement price found resistance around the 1.5350/90 zone. Because of that, I'm still bearish. My original target of 1.4797 (march 25th low) should be tested if a break of the channel happens to the down side. My immediate target right now is the 1.5024/15 zone, but let's see if the lower line of the channel supports and price bounce to test to upper line again. Price could found some resistance @1.5100, though. Tomorrow we'll see if price drops.
I'm starting to understand a little bit more about this. But, I'm more aware that my "system" is not a real system yet, that's why I'm still aside of the markets. I definitely need a entry strategy, accurate enough to be consistent in this venture. Timing, another annoying variable to the equation...
.
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Resuming...
So, two weeks have passed and we are in a consolidation phase again. Since my last post, price reached my immediate targets @ 1.5370/82
I was expecting some resistance at 1.5400 due it is a round number but then, Bam! a price gap over the weekend, so I needed to wait and see. Gaps are not so common on forex as in the stock market, as I've read, moreover not that big. I assume that the downward movement occur due stop-loss orders taken by brokers or even a natural market's response to close that gap. Price continued its upward movement with a little resistance @1.5400 and continued higher to 1.5500 without any major hold as I expected. The swing high was @1.5523, just 18pips shy from my next target @1.5541 (1.27 fib ext), then price drop sharply. Another gap in the way suggesting prudence.
I was bullish and expecting that price could reach 1.5626/41 but last swings changed my mind. From april 15th high @1.5523, price retraced to 1.5200 zone (monday 19th low @1.5191) and bounced up to thursday 22nd high @1.5473. Because price couln't break the previous high of 1.5523, more than likely we will see a decline in price. Right now it seems that price is ranging again. I drew a resistance line with the highs as the upper channel limit, but I'm hesitating about the lower limit. From my previous post, the support line seems to still be valid but time would tell. We may see price bouncing between this two limits and a break either way could mean a big movement.
Because I'm bearish, my expectation is that price could test once again the upper limit near 1.5440 and drop to the 1.5101/15 zone as first target with a little struggling at 1.5200, then, due there is not any major support levels, price should test the march 25th low @1.4798 showing some trouble around round numbers 1.5000 1.4900 and 1.4800.
Almost in every post I say this... nothing is for sure. Price could continue to go higher but if we analize the daily chart below, I've mark some elliot wave counts. This is when a conflict between analysis appear. Whislt in the weekly chart a bullish gartley seems to be present, with elliot waves theory, we might be in a major impulsive downward wave three and right now in its wave five. So price should go as low as 1.45s so... what to believe in. It's relatively easy to stablish elliot waves once they have occur, but I'm not sure that should be considered as a reliable way of trading. If price breaks the march 1st low of 1.4781, this minor wave 5 should be completed and price should go in a major corrective three-wave fourth and, if october 13th low is not broken through, price should go as low as 1.40s or lower. This is way too much speculation and cannot be confirmed till it actually happens, so... what to believe?
I could be death wrong in this post, though. Make your own analysis!.
.
I was expecting some resistance at 1.5400 due it is a round number but then, Bam! a price gap over the weekend, so I needed to wait and see. Gaps are not so common on forex as in the stock market, as I've read, moreover not that big. I assume that the downward movement occur due stop-loss orders taken by brokers or even a natural market's response to close that gap. Price continued its upward movement with a little resistance @1.5400 and continued higher to 1.5500 without any major hold as I expected. The swing high was @1.5523, just 18pips shy from my next target @1.5541 (1.27 fib ext), then price drop sharply. Another gap in the way suggesting prudence.
I was bullish and expecting that price could reach 1.5626/41 but last swings changed my mind. From april 15th high @1.5523, price retraced to 1.5200 zone (monday 19th low @1.5191) and bounced up to thursday 22nd high @1.5473. Because price couln't break the previous high of 1.5523, more than likely we will see a decline in price. Right now it seems that price is ranging again. I drew a resistance line with the highs as the upper channel limit, but I'm hesitating about the lower limit. From my previous post, the support line seems to still be valid but time would tell. We may see price bouncing between this two limits and a break either way could mean a big movement.
Because I'm bearish, my expectation is that price could test once again the upper limit near 1.5440 and drop to the 1.5101/15 zone as first target with a little struggling at 1.5200, then, due there is not any major support levels, price should test the march 25th low @1.4798 showing some trouble around round numbers 1.5000 1.4900 and 1.4800.
Almost in every post I say this... nothing is for sure. Price could continue to go higher but if we analize the daily chart below, I've mark some elliot wave counts. This is when a conflict between analysis appear. Whislt in the weekly chart a bullish gartley seems to be present, with elliot waves theory, we might be in a major impulsive downward wave three and right now in its wave five. So price should go as low as 1.45s so... what to believe in. It's relatively easy to stablish elliot waves once they have occur, but I'm not sure that should be considered as a reliable way of trading. If price breaks the march 1st low of 1.4781, this minor wave 5 should be completed and price should go in a major corrective three-wave fourth and, if october 13th low is not broken through, price should go as low as 1.40s or lower. This is way too much speculation and cannot be confirmed till it actually happens, so... what to believe?
I could be death wrong in this post, though. Make your own analysis!.
.
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