Strategy analysis

Not quite exposure rather than analysis.    I need to remember the KISS strategy as a guideline. 

Basically this strategy is quite simple.  Almost like a MA crossover.  Sounds stupid, isn't it?  It has a little twist, though. 

All my previous posts used to show fib extensions and retracements and I'm not forgeting this.  That could give me a bigger picture sight.  Somewhere I read that you should have or develop a "Feel for the numbers" as a filter, so you can either take or not a trade.  I agree.  It's just too subjetive. Hopefully I'll do it fine.

In this strategy, the ATR defines the risk and potencial gain.  Basically with a 3:2 ratio.  In most places I've read that 3:1 should be considered but what the hell.


With a rigid StopLoss and ProfitTarget, that could remove the stress from any trade I make.  If I use 1 ATR as a SL that could be just not enough space away from the market and could be stopped out to soon, so a 2ATR could be more suitable.  But analyzing my previous post, if I trade one half-minilot in a 15 min chart with a maximum of 28 pips ATR, that would be 56 pips and my max risk is 86 so I could take just one trade at a time.

That's fine for me, but I'm making the consideration of a max ATR in a 171 (or so) period rather than the ATR in the spot.  So,  when I trade, I should consider the actual ATR instead the previous high ATR.  That could give me some space. Also I have to consider that 86 limit is with a half-minilot and no one minilot.

Knowing how much I'm willing to lose, the profit target is rigid too.  1 ATR for a first half position, and 2ATR for the other half.  If I'm trading half-minilot, that means 5k positions, I should open One minilot position (10k) and close the half position when it reachs the 1ATR level. Then as a general rule for any strategy, I could move up my SL to break even in the second half, or trail the stop just below the previous bar low for the rest half-position.

That's it.  Simple isn't it?   Now, how the &#$% to enter the trade.  That's what I'm working on...

Next post...
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The real journey begins now

It’s difficult to me… really difficult at this time of my life dedicate entirely to market analysis. I’m not giving up... never.

I’m still reviewing my procedures and this log is going to help, or at least it will keep what the hell I was thinking at the time to open a position.

Some considerations that I’m now willing to follow:

- Stay away from 5min chart or less. I tried before and didn’t work, why to try again? Even trade in tick charts and positions went awfully wrong. Like chasing rabbits with blind eyes. Stay Away!
- Analyze the bigger timeframe first, and then at least three timeframes over the trigger timeframe. Get the bigger picture before enter with the trend, not against it.
- Maybe consider as trigger timeframe 15min chart but analyze 1H, 4H and daily charts before.
- Return to demo account till be consistently profitable.

Things that I’m aware of, and have to work in:

- Still don’t have a rigid strategy; I have a general idea about technical analysis but I’m not certain in my procedures
- Technical indicators are history price tools, but the most direct and realistic indicator is price. Support/Resistance and pattern are extremely strong tools. Use them.
- Lack of a valid entry strategy.
- Trend is my best friend and I don’t want, need or be able to fight with it.

So this is it. Every single trade I make is going to pass through this blog.