I would like to post a few charts here. Just as a reminiscence about my previous aproach to technical analysis.
First the weekly... the 23.6 fib ret @1.4337 held extremely well and price took off northbound.
Does it mean that we are in a bullish stream? I'm not quite convinced. As told before, I'm not really convinced in patterns or elliot wave theory, but, we had a 5-wave downward movement completed at the 23.6 fib ret @1.4337 with a beautiful confluence of numbers; and here is when I get confused. If we see the bigger picture there is always something that contradicts the previous analysis. We had a massive 5-wave upstream from mid 2001 to nov 07, then a sharp decline till jan 09. I assume that everybody knows why the "Sharp", but since then, it seems that we are in a bullish pattern. First leg from jan09 to aug09; second wave a retracement up to 23.6 fib level in may2010. That could mean that we are in a wave three? Not quite sure because price stalled in aug2010 and by now is heading southbound. That could mean that we are not in a uptrend wave-3, rather starting a 3 of a massive (3) downward wave. If we analyze different MAs we can see that we are still in a bearish market.
In a closer look, on the daily, price pass through the 1.5500 level and it's heading southbound. Price should go lower to test previous lows, maybe the 1.4800 zone with some resistance in between, more than likely around the round numbers and fib levels. What if price finds support and head upwards? Price should at least try to reach the 1.27 fib extension @1.6479. That's quite a lot from here.
Final thoughts for today. Although this kind of analysis seems to be accurate enough, it doesn't provide a valid entry point. Oscilators and technical analysis indicators are not as useful as beginers might think.
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