Thursday, October 15, 2009

I didn´t expect that!

I really didn´t expect that big movement this days.  Some charts below...


We can see in the daily chart price, from wednesday sep 30th to tuesday oct 6th, has some uncertainty behavior... I couldn´t figure out how price could react on the following days.  It took a few days but my target of 1.5758 was reached and even breaked through with a low of 1.5707 on monday oct 12th.

Then... what the hell?

                 

Price skyrocketed to the roof...  with a approximate 600 pips up in just three days.  I didn´t expect that , but the only thing that I can do now is analyze what could happen in the future.

Price break through the wave 1 low (1.6112 on tuesday sep 1st) of the three wave correction.  That´s why we can know be certain of that correction was only a three wave corrective pattern. Wave four never can overlap wave two so this uptrend is a new upward impulse action. We may be entering at a wave three of a major wave.

We can expect that price could go up further and beyond 1.7040 (wednesday aug 5th high) .  But experience tell us that nothing is for sure in this damn life.  With this 600pips in an unexpected rally, we will see a technical pullback.  With that in mind, a long opportunity would be shining in the next few days.  I want to take it.

With price around 1.6335 right now, more than likely, could retract to 1.6098, 1.6023 or even 1.5948.

Time will tell...
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Saturday, October 3, 2009

gbpusd

On monday 28th price almost reached my target at 1.5758.  Price reached 1.5770 as low that day, only 12 pips away from my target.  I´m not discarting that target yet, because a few things around my head.  This is what we got...



In my post on sunday night (sep 20th), price was forming a bulish candle but on monday 21st, at the close, we had a doji formed that confirmed a pullback in the days ahead.  I wrote that price could reach even 1.6422 and amazingly price closed at 1.6424 forming a doji as we can see in the 4H chart posted below. That´s only two pips away from my expectations.  Then, price continue to go lower and lower...


I have labeled on the 4H chart some elliot wave counts, are we at the end of a five wave? don´t know. Wave five should go lower than wave three so that´s why I´m not discarding the 1.5758 target.  But we have stochastics crossover and pointing up, so... what is it suppose to mean?

Why I didn´t post anything in this twelve past days... I was going to but I wanted to see what the market was doing, specially yesterday, nfp friday.  I just wanted to see what effect could cause in my previous analysis, but guess what... it seems to me that nothing at all.  Fundamental vs technical...  I think that we have a winner.

Sum up... reviewing the daily chart, the question would be, are we at the end of a three-legs corrective pattern? or we are going to see a five wave downtrend pattern. Time will tell...

If you are wondering if I entered... no, I did not.
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