Two days ago I was almost entering a long trade in USDJPY but I decided to wait. Bad decision. As you can analyze in the next chart, all the confluences gave a green light to enter the trade, but hesitation is something that I have to overcome.
Tuesday candlebar was a confirmation of a new uptrend coming,also we have a oversold stochastics crossover and pointing up. Wednesday and thursday just confirm my initial thought and regrets are carving my brain.
Again it's not healthy to count imaginary pips, won or lost, but in this trade that could result on a 224 pips aprox. winning position.
Now, for me, the target to this uptrend could be the previous resistance level that coincide with a strong, big, round number 100.00; for me doesn't make any sense to enter the trade now... it's too late.
We have to wait till market gives more clues about what could happen next. Price could reach 100.00 but nothing is for sure in this life, I'd say. The alternate scenario could be a downtrend starting on friday, that could result in a new low beyond 96.00, even 94 or 93.
A conclusion of this missed trade, it seems that I'm starting to undertand this thing... one step at a time.
Sorry for the delay in posting an update. I was out of my country for almost a week and didn't be able to post anything.
Let's review the AUDUSD. We had a high of 0.7317 on monday 13th and we see a divergence on MACD that was looking good. Four trading days pass and we see a huge retracement of price, reaching 0.6972 as low (closing price) of retracement. I don't like to make unreal pips counts and discourage people that do this, but that's an incredible change of 345 pips.
That make me realize that divergence on MACD works!
Now we are in a consolidation phase, I think. Price went up again till 0.7236 and then retraced again generating a indecision bar on tuesday. Stochastics is pointing down but to me it seems that is still in an uptrend, so I'm not discarding my targets of 0.7576/91
Time will tell.
An alternative scenario would be a retracement to 0.6800 zone but (again... to me!) it's not probable. Price has tested a previous support zone around 0.7000 and couln't go through, so the uptrend is more than likely to happen.
Tomorrow I will post a GBPUSD review and right now, the USDJPY seems so nice to me to enter long, but I'm going to wait. Maybe tomorrow I'll post an analysis of this chart.
So... We had a doji formed on last friday. We supposed that price would retrace because divergence on MACD. Contrary to thought, price went up almost 120 pips and MACD went lower.
Still in divergence, price reached 0.7317 on monday 13th and retract as anticipated on tuesday 14th almost same value. Including the beginning of wednesday trading day, price retraced almost 145 pips. Is this retracement a mid/long term condition? I don't know.
To me it seems that AUDUSD is in an uptrend, so this retracement could be just a extreme short term condition just to continue to a new high. My possible target is about 0.7576/91. Once again for the record, I'm not in this trade.
A review of friday's doji. A doji is a strong signal of change. That could be understood as a reversal signal, but, it has to be on the top or bottom of a trend. In this particular case, the doji was lower than the most closer high. That should be enough to discredit this doji. When divergence on MACD appear, is just matter of time that price is going to follow.
Tomorrow I'll post a GBPUSD update.
As you can see from this image, that was a high probability and low risk trade. Right now the market has formed a doji in last friday. I'm not really sure, I think that this day was a vacation day or something; monday we'll see how the market develops.
I don't enter this trade because my internet connection problem, also, as you may know, I lost confidence in my analysis so I was just observing how the market was developing in time and it seems that my analysis was accurate enough. Knowing the way I am, probably if I enter this trade in that day, that could ended as a lost. Where to put stops are so important too.
A small comment about timeframe and stops:
I'm not really sure how to manage a trade. It seems (to me) that if you trade in a large timeframe stoplimits are far away from my comfort zone. By example, in daily charts (like posted), using only pattern to estimate a limit, the position should be 140 pips aprox. in the trade that I missed. Usually I used to define a fixed stop of 30 pips... maybe too short I could say now. As counterview, small timeframes using same pattern analysis, limitstops are closer to market action, but as I told before in previous post, be aware about scalping and too small timeframes... just too much noise.
By now, AUDUSD looks like is in an uptrend... but we have divergence in MACD. That's strong enough to tell me that it's going to retrace... not sure where. In future posts I'm going to follow these two charts from now, and maybe if it's possible, another pair or two. Actually I'm seeing 10 pairs now.
I tried to post this entry yesterday but I couln't. Tomorrow I will try to post any update about these two pairs.
My monday's analysis is still in progress so I don't see any other topic to discuss, nevertheless, it seems that my time prediction was just baloney! Last friday has formed a beautiful doji and could be considered as a signal to enter... my time bands are predicting a reversal on monday or tuesday (april 14th) and also we have a strong support at 1.4630 (I think!) that corresponds at 0.618 fibonacci level from last swing. Maybe price could found support at 1.4600 (round number) considered also as a previous support zone. A trigger for a trade could be a crossover on stochastics.
Just for the record, I'm not going to enter the trade... we'll see if I was wrong or right, without risking capital. Naming an extraordinary trader, Robert Miner, capital preservation has to be the most important aspect of a solid strategy. Also making a quote of something that I read (don't remember where)... I can assume that you want to be wealthy slowly and Not poor quickly, or kind of; so take it easy. An alternative scenario could be a progressive downtrend going beyond the fib level to 1.4533 (0.5) or even 1.4433 (0.382). If prices perforate those support levels, we could say: what the hell? and see what the market brings next in a few days.
Returning to the basics, it seems (to me) that we are now in a uptrend... remember: higher highs and higher lows, and that's what I'm seeing.
Tomorrow I'll try to post another pair that I'm looking at for a while and a miss trade in that.
Greetings readers... if there is anyone!
I´m not able to post every single day of the week as you may know about my internet connection problem. Right know I´m not in my computer and I don´t have access to a chart program so I couldn´t post an image... and actually I don´t have any idea so far about what the hell happened with the GBPUSD cross!
This post is just an anticipated apology to those people that have had created strategies and concepts that I´m going to use or maybe name in future posts... if I could remember which sentence belong to somebody, I´m going to post it, but if not, please forgive me in advance.
For example, I could cite the KISS strategy. That I have learnt from babypips.com and that´s the most powerful strategy that I´ve found over the internet. That means Keep It Simple Stupid!. It´s not really a step-by-step path but that shake my perception about how to see things! And as you can anticipated, an ironic laugh! Believe me if I can say that I have suffered the so called technical analysis brain paralysis... too many indicators and just a short-circuit in my brain.
Nevertheless, I can´t say how many sites I have read about forex... how many essays and documents... a few books I could say... blogs... many videos on youtube... So remember what belongs to who is just impossible.
I hope tomorrow to post an image about what the hell happened with our first posted pair, GBPUSD, and analize how wrong I was or viceversa.
Final words... This is a warning and I´m almost positive that you already have heart it before... Forex is a dangerous and volatile market... and it´s not suitable for all investors. Involve risk and possible lost of the investment capital... as you can prove with my first entries. The first objetive of this blog is to keep a record of my own experiences and it does not have to be considered as an investment advice or kind of. So, be aware about forex risks and make your own analysis.
See you tomorrow!
Well, it's been a while... Just feel like a glass that crashed the floor...
You might anticipated that almost every word written in previous posts were tought several days ago, even weeks, and it's true. I sat down on march 1st and wrote almost every single entry of this blog so far, and also had a few more written, but as time goes by, I don't see any benefit of publish those.
By now, I'm willing to look the market just as an observer; I don't feel ready to start trading again yet, so I'm going to make my own analysis and time is going to tell me if I was right or wrong... But remember the absolute truth: MARKET IS ALWAYS RIGHT!
As published in previous posts, I'm going to follow only major pairs, and for now the GBPUSD:
As you can see, I was right on march 11th, but I didn't enter the market. That's another issue, believe it or not, I have an internet conection problem and it's difficult to me stay connected all the time. What am I expecting about this daily chart? Well... you can see a big red bar about monday, and a kind of doji on tuesday bar, but this trading day is just beginning so it doesn't have sense to consider this one. With fibonacci extensions, price could retract to 1.4533 on tuesday, even 1.4433, but not beyond, and that could confirm a new uptrend.
Price could reach then 1.5280 at least, even 1.5469/1.5479 on april 14th. Time will tell...
Tomorrow we'll see what the hell happened!
